Win rate
27.2%
25 W / 67 L
Total PnL
$10,756
realized $7,496 · unrealized $3,260
Portfolio
$3,260
volume $383,932
Predictions
132
1.0/day · avg $2,909
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 24% +$11,047
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 20¢ | $-552 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 34¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 4¢ | $-489 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$269 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 14¢ | $-226 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 8¢ | $-2,399 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 18¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 26¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-77 | loss |
Mentions 33% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Elections 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 54¢ | 42¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 33% $-127
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | loss |
| Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
Other 50% $-265
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 18¢ | $-10 | loss |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-251 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by 2025? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | +$125 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $130 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | Yes | 20.9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,482 | $4,331 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? | Yes | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 07/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $98 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $116 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $21 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $20 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $28 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $22 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $41 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $41 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $103 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $171 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | $91 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $116 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $59 | 23/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$254 | $396 | 14/01/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $25 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $29 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $24 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $98 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | Yes | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $74 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-251 | $400 | 01/01/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by 2025? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $60 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | No | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $39 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 54.8¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $107 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | $165 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 24.5¢ | 0¢ | $-457 | $482 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Yes | 30.8¢ | 0¢ | $-781 | $848 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $93 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Israel or Iran break the ceasefire first? | Israel | 62.0¢ | 50¢ | $-1 | $100 | 31/08/2025 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/08/2025 |
| Israel strikes Iran before August? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $100 | 31/07/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/07/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $439 | 15/07/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $63 | 04/07/2025 |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17,708 | $13,699 | 30/06/2025 |
| Israel military action against Iran before July? | Yes | 25.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,743 | $1,198 | 30/06/2025 |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 100¢ | +$659 | $516 | 30/06/2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $30 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $36 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Yes | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | $61 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? | Yes | 66.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 20/06/2025 |