Win rate
47.3%
26 W / 29 L
Total PnL
$456
realized $-479 · unrealized $935
Portfolio
$935
volume $44,630
Predictions
182
4.8/day · avg $245
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 35% +$425
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 54¢ | 33¢ | $-8 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 22¢ | $-12 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 14¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-15 | loss |
Other 80% +$193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 54¢ | 58¢ | +$8 | win |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 16¢ | 24¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | Yes | 46¢ | 3¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 81¢ | 98¢ | +$26 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| World Series of Poker – American winner? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
Crypto 100% +$107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana reach $100 in April? | No | 75¢ | 81¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
Politics 75% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 64¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 31¢ | 60¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 58¢ | 70¢ | +$30 | win |
Finance 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | No | 56¢ | 56¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 25% $-63
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 60¢ | 57¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 37¢ | 34¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 40.5¢ | 21¢ | +$65 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $177 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $87 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 32.9¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $43 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 98¢ | +$26 | $122 | 12/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 38¢ | $-10 | $50 | 14/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Yes | 60.3¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $101 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 16/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 15/01/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Yes | 50.7¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $80 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 18.3¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $300 | 04/11/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $127 | 31/10/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $55 | 30/09/2025 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? | No | 70.4¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $245 | 01/09/2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 31/07/2025 |
| World Series of Poker – American winner? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $132 | 17/07/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Yes | 63.6¢ | 0¢ | $-472 | $472 | 15/07/2025 |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 30? | No | 39.3¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $50 | 01/07/2025 |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Yes | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | +$653 | $1,001 | 30/06/2025 |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | No | 14.4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $77 | 30/06/2025 |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | No | 24.7¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | $182 | 25/06/2025 |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | $103 | 20/06/2025 |
| Israel military action against Iran by Friday? | No | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 13/06/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $29 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 21/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 4¢ | $-28 | $46 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 58.4¢ | 70¢ | +$30 | $150 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 71.0¢ | 76¢ | +$18 | $171 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $245 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 24¢ | +$99 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 33.4¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 31.0¢ | 60¢ | +$4 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 26.3¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $79 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 14¢ | $-14 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $81 | 30/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 1¢ | $-15 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 3¢ | $-18 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $100 in April? | No | 75.0¢ | 81¢ | +$4 | $50 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 64.5¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | $81 | 16/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 22¢ | $-12 | $50 | 31/05/2026 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.3¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $71 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 58¢ | +$8 | $100 | 13/09/2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 37.0¢ | 34¢ | $-2 | $22 | 04/10/2026 |