Win rate
72.8%
142 W / 53 L
Total PnL
$-1,915
realized $-10,279 · unrealized $8,364
Portfolio
$8,364
volume $279,889
Predictions
193
2.6/day · avg $1,450
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 69% +$1,574
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 85¢ | 69¢ | $-10 | loss |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 84¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by January 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$281 | win |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 62¢ | +$36 | win |
| Megaquake by June 30? | No | 61¢ | 82¢ | +$34 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$71 | win |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
Tech 50% +$458
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$446 | win |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 90% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 79¢ | 88¢ | +$21 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 100% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Weather 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Culture 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elden Ring: Nightreign win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Elections 40% $-85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | loss |
| Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Crypto 73% $-123
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 75% $-3,700
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 6¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$619 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$789 | $2,679 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 100¢ | +$619 | $845 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | $3,047 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$239 | $1,365 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $1,158 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | No | 72.6¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $796 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $1,067 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 74.2¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $291 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $1,901 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $325 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $1,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $605 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $130 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $707 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $320 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13? | Yes | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $409 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $433 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 60.8¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | $392 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 84.5¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Yes | 37.9¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $253 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | $327 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 74.8¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 18.5¢ | 100¢ | $-58 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | No | 66.4¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | $-110 | $149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | Yes | 50.5¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 0¢ | $-311 | $440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 81.3¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | $330 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-594 | $2,267 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | No | 58.8¢ | 84¢ | +$218 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 0¢ | +$202 | $110 | 16/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $200 | 13/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | Yes | 59.2¢ | 0¢ | $-127 | $140 | 13/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? | No | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $120 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $3,300 | 01/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $100 | 01/03/2026 |