Win rate
67.7%
126 W / 60 L
Total PnL
$2,405
realized $-12,422 · unrealized $14,827
Portfolio
$14,827
volume $335,142
Predictions
203
6.7/day · avg $1,651
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 73% +$2,199
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 47¢ | 78¢ | +$184 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 91¢ | +$285 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 82¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-201 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 91¢ | +$9 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-239 | loss |
Politics 73% +$2,137
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 41¢ | 39¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 57¢ | 74¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 28¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 72¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$26 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | win |
Other 62% +$1,152
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 73¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 57¢ | 52¢ | $-19 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 63¢ | 60¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 44¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 27¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 69¢ | 90¢ | +$106 | win |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 55¢ | 62¢ | +$8 | win |
Culture 86% +$347
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | win |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
Finance 71% +$36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 13¢ | 10¢ | +$22 | win |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 21¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Tech 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 0% $-56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 15¢ | $-56 | loss |
Elections 50% $-150
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 55¢ | 60¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 56¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | +$3 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 36¢ | 34¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | loss |
Economy 27% $-541
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 23¢ | 18¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 19¢ | 8¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | loss |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,053 | $5,669 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$492 | $2,007 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $235 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $229 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $322 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 13.6¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $135 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $42 | 14/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$341 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | $135 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-157 | $1,249 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 1¢ | $-97 | $97 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $201 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $169 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 21.4¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $97 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 100¢ | $-303 | $1,223 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 66.7¢ | 0¢ | $-360 | $1,390 | 07/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $314 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 70.7¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $843 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 82.9¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $147 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 14.2¢ | 14¢ | +$5 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March? | Yes | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 72.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $-169 | $188 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $521 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 90¢ | +$196 | $1,410 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 86¢ | +$373 | $1,577 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $282 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 59.1¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $320 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 52.1¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $106 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $73 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $57 | 15/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $179 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 15/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $101 | 03/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $65 | 01/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | $534 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | No | 44.7¢ | 56¢ | +$34 | $148 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 81.3¢ | 81¢ | +$1 | $181 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | 84.4¢ | 87¢ | +$2 | $78 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 49.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $83 | 31/10/2025 |