Win rate
50.9%
118 W / 114 L
Total PnL
$914,485
realized $-414,573 · unrealized $1,329,057
Portfolio
$1,329,057
volume $19,856,368
Predictions
211
6.3/day · avg $94,106
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 50% +$900,869
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$11,053 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$36,192 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$10,222 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$2,213 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$2,133 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 84¢ | +$57,593 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 70¢ | +$7,158 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 22¢ | $-1,192 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 43¢ | 78¢ | +$4,046 | win |
| Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$343 | win |
Other 57% +$85,753
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 44¢ | +$392 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 40¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 46¢ | 50¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-916 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$1,372 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | loss |
| SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 92¢ | +$125 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 24¢ | 56¢ | +$91,939 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-944 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$45,839 | win |
Politics 50% +$21,805
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$11,997 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2,262 | win |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 21¢ | 8¢ | $-17,443 | loss |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $-894 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 91¢ | 80¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 29¢ | 40¢ | +$10,457 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 45¢ | 40¢ | +$84,327 | win |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 33¢ | 31¢ | $-945 | loss |
Elections 67% +$5,357
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 49¢ | 81¢ | +$427 | win |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 5¢ | $-513 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 30¢ | 28¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$3,110 | win |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$1,528 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$517 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | No | 15¢ | 22¢ | +$378 | win |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$77 | win |
Crypto 100% +$2,193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$2,193 | win |
Finance 100% +$505
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$505 | win |
Economy 0% $-247
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 16¢ | $-96 | loss |
Tech 0% $-1,171
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-1,171 | loss |
Sports 40% $-14,039
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 40¢ | 46¢ | +$8,194 | win |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$43,550 | win |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-24,625 | loss |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Heat | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-30,358 | loss |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-10,800 | loss |
Weather 0% $-50,952
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks | Kansas Jayhawks | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-15,535 | loss |
| Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-10.5) | Northern Iowa Panthers | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-10,200 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 33.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43,550 | $21,450 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 19.7¢ | 100¢ | +$112,254 | $49,331 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4,589 | $18,869 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $654 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $-37,619 | $44,584 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5,431 | $224,604 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20,210 | $20,208 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24,625 | $25,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 41.9¢ | 90¢ | +$15,739 | $15,674 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-944 | $943 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-735 | $734 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 53.2¢ | 10¢ | $-1,375 | $6,852 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | Yes | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $151 | 15/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Heat | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30,358 | $30,990 | 14/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | Yes | 37.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3,110 | $1,835 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | 36.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,528 | $871 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$517 | $3,177 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 85.8¢ | 99¢ | +$45,839 | $277,819 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 99¢ | +$5,797 | $58,517 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 0¢ | $-6,220 | $6,220 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,053 | $1,053 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$195,466 | $369,278 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6,714 | $3,909 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 50.1¢ | 90¢ | +$118,473 | $142,619 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | $-4,022 | $5,374 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 55.2¢ | 10¢ | +$3,951 | $101,704 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 41.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,193 | $8,780 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 68.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20,066 | $87,746 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 78.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20,058 | $238,580 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 31.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8,642 | $4,121 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8,145 | $3,897 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7,453 | $22,553 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5,928 | $14,518 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 44.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4,300 | $3,399 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 56.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4,038 | $5,281 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3,734 | $18,093 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,292 | $2,918 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,949 | $16,750 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,001 | $9,101 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,500 | $47,650 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,257 | $6,185 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,238 | $4,923 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,221 | $22,800 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | No | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$772 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | $14,073 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13? | Yes | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$357 | $2,571 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | $2,112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? | Yes | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $634 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? | No | 72.5¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-278 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |