Win rate
60.0%
24 W / 16 L
Total PnL
$3,401
realized $1,325 · unrealized $2,076
Portfolio
$2,076
volume $107,827
Predictions
41
0.9/day · avg $2,630
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 58% +$3,059
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-1,137 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-308 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 76¢ | +$30 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$355 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 47¢ | 50¢ | +$30 | win |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Finance 100% +$49
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 95¢ | +$49 | win |
Other 57% +$18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 44¢ | 66¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 36¢ | +$20 | win |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | No | 56¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 22¢ | 46¢ | +$876 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$291 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-1,013 | loss |
Politics 80% $-56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 30¢ | 34¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during 2pm signing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | loss |
Economy 0% $-58
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
Recent Trades (40)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 61.8¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $401 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $321 | 01/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$510 | $2,929 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$355 | $2,727 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$291 | $5,453 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $1,181 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 47.0¢ | 50¢ | +$30 | $111 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 72.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $388 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 18/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $69 | 15/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $217 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2? | No | 19.0¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $24 | 02/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,280 | $4,439 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 66.9¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $52 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $33 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $20 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 93.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,076 | $2,346 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during 2pm signing? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 03/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,861 | $3,732 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | $144 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 30.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,013 | $1,013 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | $162 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | $264 | 31/10/2025 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 30.2¢ | 34¢ | +$29 | $205 | 21/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 46¢ | +$876 | $803 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 64.7¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $174 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $-954 | $624 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | No | 56.0¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | $22 | 15/05/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 76¢ | +$30 | $32 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 37.2¢ | 0¢ | +$282 | $2,088 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 28.8¢ | 0¢ | $-308 | $308 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 36¢ | +$20 | $35 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 28.8¢ | 0¢ | +$165 | $1,642 | 31/12/2026 |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 95¢ | +$49 | $28 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $1,758 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 44.0¢ | 66¢ | $-12 | $71 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 35.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,137 | $1,323 | 31/12/2026 |