Win rate
56.9%
37 W / 28 L
Total PnL
$251
realized $-3,171 · unrealized $3,422
Portfolio
$3,422
volume $7,237
Predictions
40
2.2/day · avg $181
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 62% +$117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 72¢ | 86¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 39¢ | 42¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 72¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 47¢ | 50¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 6¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 10¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 58% +$104
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 72¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 30¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 44¢ | 72¢ | +$60 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 76¢ | 78¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 66¢ | $-9 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 50¢ | $-29 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 57¢ | +$23 | win |
Elections 67% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40¢ | 39¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 20% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 57¢ | 56¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 56¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 54¢ | 53¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 48.7¢ | 88¢ | +$80 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 52.1¢ | 88¢ | +$66 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 73.1¢ | 86¢ | +$18 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 70.7¢ | 99¢ | +$30 | $74 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 8¢ | $-43 | $49 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 58.8¢ | 82¢ | +$39 | $100 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 76.8¢ | 60¢ | $-12 | $55 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 55.6¢ | 90¢ | +$11 | $100 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 72.6¢ | 94¢ | $-8 | $112 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 6¢ | +$14 | $50 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 40.4¢ | 10¢ | +$11 | $52 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 62¢ | $-19 | $99 | 22/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 56¢ | +$41 | $145 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 44.1¢ | 49¢ | +$8 | $74 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 63.9¢ | 90¢ | +$40 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 49.3¢ | 45¢ | $-22 | $224 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 48.3¢ | 55¢ | +$35 | $218 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 75¢ | +$22 | $89 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 55¢ | +$8 | $102 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 61.5¢ | 45¢ | $-28 | $115 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 59.3¢ | 44¢ | $-45 | $158 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 52.3¢ | 50¢ | $-2 | $56 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 52¢ | $-20 | $74 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 61.4¢ | 72¢ | $-3 | $113 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 53¢ | $-1 | $43 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 47.4¢ | 50¢ | +$2 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 54.0¢ | 51¢ | $-2 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | No | 52.0¢ | 35¢ | $-8 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 50¢ | $-45 | $162 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $75 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 38.7¢ | 57¢ | +$23 | $77 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 41.7¢ | 50¢ | +$20 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $49 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 55¢ | +$5 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 51.0¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | $52 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 70.6¢ | 50¢ | $-29 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 71.3¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 68.6¢ | 92¢ | +$26 | $76 | 15/05/2026 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 61.3¢ | 60¢ | $-3 | $99 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 58¢ | $-9 | $131 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 39.0¢ | 42¢ | +$7 | $26 | 26/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 47.1¢ | 34¢ | $-39 | $289 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 69¢ | +$12 | $118 | 31/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 56.6¢ | 74¢ | +$20 | $62 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | $25 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 56.5¢ | 66¢ | $-9 | $246 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | $27 | 07/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 43.9¢ | 72¢ | +$60 | $95 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 66.9¢ | 68¢ | +$1 | $74 | 30/06/2026 |