Win rate
74.2%
207 W / 72 L
Total PnL
$26,814
realized $-169,778 · unrealized $196,593
Portfolio
$196,593
volume $3,239,032
Predictions
281
4.6/day · avg $11,527
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 82% +$19,732
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-800 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$21 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 30¢ | $-149 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 76¢ | +$500 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$587 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$304 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$347 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 97¢ | $-241 | loss |
Other 76% +$3,347
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 85¢ | 66¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$18 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$252 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 76¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | No | 72¢ | 97¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$388 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 77¢ | 96¢ | +$231 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$442 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 82¢ | 64¢ | $-125 | loss |
Politics 62% +$1,389
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 36¢ | 27¢ | $-556 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 56¢ | 39¢ | $-555 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$89 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$127 | win |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$40 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$22 | win |
Crypto 68% +$846
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | 150k | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 67¢ | +$720 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? | 130k | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-167 | loss |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$415 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
Elections 50% +$702
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 29¢ | 19¢ | $-434 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$275 | win |
Tech 100% +$283
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 78¢ | +$81 | win |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 81¢ | 95¢ | +$115 | win |
| GPT ads by December 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Finance 45% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | 77¢ | 69¢ | $-244 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | 69¢ | 91¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 70¢ | 94¢ | +$371 | win |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | No | 86¢ | 74¢ | $-195 | loss |
Culture 100% +$38
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$868 | $2,189 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 99¢ | +$295 | $766 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 98.1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $4,905 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5,242 | $8,957 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,742 | $88,034 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,578 | $56,514 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,313 | $60,946 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | +$810 | $2,370 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$562 | $38,926 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$353 | $4,549 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$351 | $8,436 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 0¢ | +$315 | $5,076 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | $1,294 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $12,456 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $7,278 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $5,380 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $3,139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $2,559 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $4,935 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $1,400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-179 | $14,834 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-640 | $2,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $90 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$619 | $24,390 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | $18,161 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $6,940 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Israel in March? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $2,510 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq in March? | Yes | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $818 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE in March? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $1,389 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | Yes | 46.4¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $232 | 07/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$120 | $182 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $2,967 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $4,970 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$970 | $58,767 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$790 | $32,407 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$424 | $23,809 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$319 | $32,430 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $1,215 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $16,803 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | +$131 | $221 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $12,666 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $965 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $9,108 | 28/02/2026 |
| Maduro out by February 28, 2026? | No | 79.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,595 | $1,595 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,015 | $45,977 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$883 | $9,499 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$742 | $43,142 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$676 | $24,324 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | $5,570 | 31/01/2026 |