jocpolitic

Elections 38% +$227,772 $1,561,047 vol · 96 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	67¢	64¢	$-196	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	5¢	28¢	+$27,841	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	84¢	34¢	$-4,693	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	28¢	14¢	+$2,031	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	31¢	14¢	+$160	win
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?	No	21¢	100¢	+$1,589	win
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	88¢	100¢	$-929	loss
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	69¢	0¢	$-4,699	loss
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	51¢	0¢	$-11,210	loss
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	58¢	0¢	$-6,080	loss

Geopolitics 58% +$36,027 $1,003,337 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	79¢	94¢	+$26,269	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	89¢	72¢	$-2,542	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	14¢	0¢	$-8,313	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	27¢	3¢	+$267	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$-1,432	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	93¢	99¢	+$8,475	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	39¢	42¢	+$734	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	93¢	100¢	+$3,308	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	32¢	100¢	$-7,164	loss
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$506	win

Crypto 67% +$19,646 $74,461 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$13,474	win
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	No	85¢	100¢	+$6,260	win

Other 50% +$9,323 $525,353 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	96¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	69¢	100¢	$-539	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	47¢	50¢	+$1,243	win
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	No	12¢	14¢	+$970	win
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Yes	85¢	86¢	+$9	win
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$579	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	8¢	1¢	$-191	loss
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$8,263	win
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	Yes	29¢	0¢	+$924	win
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	$-808	loss

Sports 33% +$5,309 $129,492 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	No	87¢	100¢	+$8,235	win
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-615	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-2,311	loss

Culture 100% +$733 $3,641 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$733	win

Tech 0% $-5,276 $5,275 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	18¢	0¢	$-5,276	loss

Politics 27% $-15,534 $181,861 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-11,746	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	98¢	100¢	+$111	win
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	7¢	8¢	+$51	win
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	26¢	8¢	$-576	loss
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	61¢	60¢	+$2,059	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	72¢	60¢	$-6,538	loss
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	34¢	30¢	$-500	loss
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	34¢	31¢	$-222	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-640	loss
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$7,028	win