Win rate
86.1%
327 W / 53 L
Total PnL
$599
realized $-6,283 · unrealized $6,882
Portfolio
$6,882
volume $159,752
Predictions
935
10.0/day · avg $171
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/04/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 91% +$2,943
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Politics 81% +$701
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$144 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 76¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% in April? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 86% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be the highest grossing movie this weekend? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 8m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
Geopolitics 89% +$36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by December 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Tech 80% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Mentions 91% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 75% $-42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Up | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? | Up | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? | Down | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? | Down | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 16? | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 15? | Down | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 50% $-408
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$442 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-850 | loss |
Elections 84% $-2,333
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 71¢ | 90¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 68 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $70 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 64 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 68 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 79.7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 79.7¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $55 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78.1¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $330 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $76 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 5? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $780 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 68 million views on day 5? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $32 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 77 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $140 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" score at least 72 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $137 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on April 3, 2026? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $58 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on April 3, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? | No | 59.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,301 | $1,964 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 43.7¢ | 100¢ | +$385 | $299 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $949 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $1,547 | 31/03/2026 |
| 100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $540 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 117 billion views by March 31? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $750 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| 50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 118 billion views by March 31? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $964 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $259 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $269 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 82%? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $396 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 74.3¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |