Win rate
34.1%
15 W / 29 L
Total PnL
$-358
realized $-983 · unrealized $625
Portfolio
$625
volume $52,203
Predictions
105
1.4/day · avg $497
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 32% +$244
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-465 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 16¢ | $-35 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 18¢ | 6¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 66¢ | +$96 | win |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 10¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 93¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $-24 | loss |
Elections 0% $-47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Politics 20% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 48¢ | 34¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
Other 46% $-423
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 36¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-576 | loss |
| US government shutdown in 2025? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
Recent Trades (44)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 26.1¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | $441 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 69.9¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | No | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? | No | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 46.7¢ | 100¢ | +$585 | $1,496 | 28/02/2026 |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | $60 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $30 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | $46 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown in 2025? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? | Yes | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Another US military action against Iran before 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $85 | 31/12/2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Yes | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $-576 | $639 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $50 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $65 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 04/11/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $61 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $65 | 15/10/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $108 | 10/10/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? | No | 77.0¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $74 | 10/10/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $69 | 10/10/2025 |
| US strikes Iran by October 31? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $72 | 03/10/2025 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $316 | 30/09/2025 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 31/08/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $75 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 22.4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $35 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 1¢ | $-24 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 17.7¢ | 3¢ | $-25 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $140 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 20.8¢ | 93¢ | +$47 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 10¢ | $-21 | $35 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 6¢ | $-120 | $190 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 66¢ | +$96 | $55 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 14¢ | $-36 | $65 | 30/06/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 47.8¢ | 34¢ | $-26 | $95 | 30/06/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 36¢ | $-14 | $45 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | $75 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $115 | 30/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 65.5¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | $110 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 39.3¢ | 16¢ | $-35 | $60 | 31/12/2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | $30 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 60.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 8¢ | $-22 | $50 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $-465 | $465 | 31/12/2026 |