AAALovesTakaichi

Other 62% +$340 $10,655 vol · 100 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	28¢	24¢	$-18	loss
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	47¢	57¢	+$6	win
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	73¢	94¢	+$34	win
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	74¢	95¢	+$8	win
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	31¢	100¢	+$4	win
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	17¢	26¢	$-9	loss
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	15¢	38¢	+$2	win
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	31¢	38¢	+$23	win
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	84¢	100¢	+$10	win

Politics 84% +$283 $5,635 vol · 58 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	83¢	90¢	+$3	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	28¢	100¢	+$0	—
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	31¢	0¢	+$18	win
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?	No	76¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will Trump and Machado hug by Friday?	No	84¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by January 2, 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in December?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in December?	No	91¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump say "Real Gold" in December?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win

Crypto 68% +$210 $1,737 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	35¢	40¢	+$5	win
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	No	8¢	1¢	+$7	win
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	6¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 80 in 2026?	No	34¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	44¢	77¢	$-4	loss
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?	No	68¢	71¢	+$1	win
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	No	13¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15?	No	50¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?	Yes	59¢	100¢	+$28	win
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	No	85¢	82¢	+$1	win

Economy 100% +$51 $234 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	34¢	26¢	+$2	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$41	win
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Cramer say "Recession" during TBPN on December 4?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win

Weather 100% +$12 $451 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	87¢	90¢	+$12	win

Culture 93% +$9 $729 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	82¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	29¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	28¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will I’m The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win

Sports 50% +$1 $118 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 20?	Up	86¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 17?	Up	90¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?	No	34¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Finance 50% $-3 $63 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17?	Up	49¢	100¢	+$30	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17?	Down	55¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Tech 67% $-14 $217 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 11?	Down	86¢	100¢	$-2	loss
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	43¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 9?	No	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Cramer say "Nvidia" or "AMD" 5+ times during TBPN on December 4?	No	65¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Elections 0% $-66 $66 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump say "Midterm" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?	No	33¢	0¢	$-66	loss

Geopolitics 56% $-250 $7,293 vol · 55 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	52¢	30¢	+$14	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	43¢	0¢	+$5	win
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	77¢	83¢	+$4	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$0	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	36¢	0¢	$-245	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	34¢	69¢	$-0	loss
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$16	win
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	No	24¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$10	win