Win rate
54.6%
443 W / 369 L
Total PnL
$113,025
realized $-82,100 · unrealized $195,125
Portfolio
$195,125
volume $6,169,949
Predictions
881
15.7/day · avg $7,003
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 60% +$67,567
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$944 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-8,047 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-265 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 65¢ | 88¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 70¢ | +$3,725 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$3,957 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 72¢ | +$1,011 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$72 | win |
Other 60% +$34,317
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$917 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$356 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 53¢ | 56¢ | +$190 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 68¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | $-1,050 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Yes | 18¢ | 48¢ | +$116 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$674 | win |
Politics 41% +$22,260
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$425 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-446 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$4,756 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 13¢ | 8¢ | $-625 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | +$489 | win |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | $-454 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 24¢ | 60¢ | $-2,937 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 89¢ | 40¢ | $-200 | loss |
Sports 55% +$16,743
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 38¢ | 46¢ | +$2,151 | win |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$700 | win |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-900 | loss |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$1,000 | win |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$920 | win |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-920 | loss |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$1,470 | win |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees | Los Angeles Angels | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$1,240 | win |
Culture 100% +$6,388
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | Yes | 50¢ | 54¢ | +$3 | win |
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$6,122 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
Economy 100% +$1,318
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$550 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$768 | win |
Finance 100% +$808
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$428 | win |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | win |
Crypto 62% $-424
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$5,800 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$189 | win |
Tech 50% $-1,750
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$280 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-2,071 | loss |
Elections 43% $-9,190
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | win |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 63¢ | 81¢ | +$155 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 58¢ | 64¢ | +$459 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 55¢ | +$1,035 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 46¢ | $-940 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$1,071 | win |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$2,600 | win |
Esports 51% $-15,751
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$960 | win |
| Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 | Under | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$860 | win |
| Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 | Over | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner | Leviatan Esports | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-391 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | Team Vitality | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$1,499 | win |
| LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner | FURIA Esports | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner | FUT Esports | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner | TheMongolz | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$90 | win |
| Counter-Strike: BIG vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner | Team Nemesis | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$840 | $515 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 90.6¢ | 84¢ | $-1,115 | $15,249 | 17/04/2026 |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Magic | 40.0¢ | 40¢ | +$20 | $1,600 | 17/04/2026 |
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 68.0¢ | 72¢ | +$10 | $197 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Secret Service" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 70.0¢ | 74¢ | +$9 | $164 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 70.0¢ | 74¢ | +$1 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 32.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,897 | $1,704 | 16/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 | Over | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$945 | $980 | 16/04/2026 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | $273 | 16/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 | Under | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $256 | 16/04/2026 |
| Spread: Clippers (-5.5) | Clippers | 58.4¢ | 0¢ | $-3,772 | $5,363 | 16/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 48.4¢ | 93¢ | +$4,952 | $7,509 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | 53.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,910 | $4,449 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Trail Blazers | 50.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,492 | $2,560 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$460 | $3,540 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5 | Over | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | $557 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Suns (-3.5) | Trail Blazers | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$359 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 | Under | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Suns (-4.5) | Trail Blazers | 75.3¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 100¢ | $-280 | $1,330 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 32.6¢ | 0¢ | $-511 | $771 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-630 | $630 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-859 | $418 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $66,933 | 15/04/2026 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Dplus KIA | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-844 | $844 | 15/04/2026 |
| LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | Ultra Prime | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,067 | $1,067 | 15/04/2026 |
| Red Wings vs. Panthers | Red Wings | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,180 | $1,180 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Suns (-4.5) | Suns | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-306 | $320 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 | Under | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | +$281 | $218 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 | Over | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | $148 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5 | Over | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | $84 | 15/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 | Over | 23.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,544 | $1,580 | 14/04/2026 |
| Sabres vs. Blackhawks | Sabres | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,476 | $2,624 | 14/04/2026 |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | Capitals | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,180 | $820 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$960 | $1,040 | 14/04/2026 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 | Over | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$900 | $1,100 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | Hornets | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | $2,550 | 14/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 | Under | 76.9¢ | 0¢ | $-701 | $2,003 | 14/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Heat | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5,204 | $5,634 | 14/04/2026 |
| Wild vs. Blues | Wild | 41.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,699 | $1,699 | 14/04/2026 |
| Sharks vs. Predators | Predators | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,337 | $2,337 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? | No | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,800 | $1,800 | 14/04/2026 |
| Jets vs. Golden Knights | Jets | 37.5¢ | 0¢ | $-792 | $792 | 14/04/2026 |
| Canadiens vs. Flyers | Canadiens | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,420 | $1,420 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,260 | $1,260 | 14/04/2026 |
| Devils vs. Bruins | Devils | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-460 | $460 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: Hornets (-6.5) | Hornets | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-458 | $1,360 | 14/04/2026 |
| Hurricanes vs. Flyers | Flyers | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,720 | $2,280 | 13/04/2026 |
| Canucks vs. Ducks | Canucks | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,622 | $600 | 13/04/2026 |