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D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935
0xd8d5289c35124b5353f5a10a28b8cc29aec38935 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
69.7%
306 W / 133 L
Total PnL
$12,058
realized $-127,378 · unrealized $139,436
Portfolio
$139,436
volume $1,792,956
Predictions
435
26.5/day · avg $4,122
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 79% +$9,079
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 16¢ | +$18 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 47¢ | 31¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$1,722 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$383 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$223 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 69¢ | +$503 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 84¢ | $-39 | loss |
Other 68% +$5,242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 72¢ | 69¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 80¢ | 72¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 93¢ | 90¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 93¢ | +$75 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 62¢ | 58¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | Yes | 25¢ | 42¢ | +$50 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 44¢ | +$22 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 57¢ | 64¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | win |
Politics 81% +$2,234
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 58¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | Yes | 80¢ | 83¢ | +$10 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | No | 37¢ | 52¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 33¢ | 31¢ | $-69 | loss |
Elections 46% +$1,584
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-186 | loss |
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 50¢ | 22¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 52¢ | 66¢ | +$1,626 | win |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-774 | loss |
| Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 86¢ | 89¢ | +$14 | win |
Esports 78% +$1,070
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | Spirit | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | HOTU | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Aurora Gaming | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner | FURIA | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-215 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | 3DMAX | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
Culture 88% +$188
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-208 | loss |
| Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
Tech 83% +$159
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$38 | win |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Economy 75% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 80¢ | +$7 | win |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$21 | win |
Crypto 67% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | No | 74¢ | 99¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 32¢ | 60¢ | +$86 | win |
Finance 67% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 15¢ | 23¢ | +$24 | win |
Sports 48% $-529
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 86¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Golden Knights vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-280 | loss |
| Predators vs. Utah | Utah | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | win |
| Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks | Hurricanes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$155 | win |
| Canucks vs. Kings | Kings | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | win |
| Flames vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Wild vs. Stars | Wild | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
| Jets vs. Blues | Blues | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | loss |
| Golden Knights vs. Kraken | Golden Knights | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-315 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $1,680 | 17/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $1,018 | 17/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Spirit | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $395 | 17/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | Spirit | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $280 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $137 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $114 | 17/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | $140 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 12, 2026? | No | 77.6¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $155 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $186 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,082 | $3,534 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$288 | $322 | 15/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | HOTU | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | $240 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$226 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | $2,218 | 15/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $330 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $572 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $1,219 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $591 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $568 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | $-56 | $5,471 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | $-167 | $5,359 | 15/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Aurora Gaming | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $492 | 15/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner | FURIA | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-215 | $215 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | $12,314 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 54.6¢ | 92¢ | +$906 | $2,443 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.2¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $93 | 15/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | 3DMAX | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | $240 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Team Falcons | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $100 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $967 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $435 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $210 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $214 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $127 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 62.6¢ | 100¢ | +$481 | $804 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $261 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $279 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $124 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | $-52 | $204 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? | Yes | 54.5¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | $109 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | No | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-208 | $360 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,930 | $85,043 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,249 | $4,442 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 84¢ | +$854 | $2,529 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$696 | $2,210 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | $2,129 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | No | 46.7¢ | 100¢ | +$431 | $514 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 48.1¢ | 100¢ | +$375 | $348 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | $3,447 | 12/04/2026 |