0xOctopus

Crypto 91% +$14 $1,047 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	61¢	0¢	+$3	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 7AM ET	Up	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 10AM ET	Down	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12PM ET	Down	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10AM ET	Down	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	No	87¢	100¢	+$5	win
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	90¢	100¢	+$3	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5AM ET	Up	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 13?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$0	win

Tech 71% +$11 $14,055 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$-1	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	99¢	99¢	+$8	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	75¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	78¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Geopolitics 70% +$8 $6,355 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	89¢	91¢	+$1	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	+$3	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	96¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-03-31?	No	60¢	100¢	+$11	win
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$0	win
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Francisco Cerundolo	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	$-5	loss

Sports 100% +$7 $386 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-21?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$2	win
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti	Djokovic	67¢	100¢	+$3	win
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Yannick Hanfmann	Djokovic	80¢	100¢	+$2	win

Finance 100% +$3 $257 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15?	Up	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 100% +$0 $40 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$0	win

Weather 100% +$0 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 25?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Culture 50% $-22 $1,542 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	92¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 18 2025)	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will “The Beast in Me” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)	Yes	79¢	100¢	$-16	loss
Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win

Economy 33% $-32 $1,399 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	26¢	24¢	$-30	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	98¢	+$0	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	99¢	$-2	loss

Politics 33% $-60 $546 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	87¢	84¢	$-2	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	23¢	8¢	$-65	loss
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?	Yes	28¢	0¢	+$6	win

Other 79% $-662 $35,493 vol · 288 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Human moon landing in 2026?	No	94¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	86¢	82¢	$-11	loss
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	98¢	96¢	$-1	loss
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Yes	90¢	90¢	$-1	loss
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	33¢	40¢	$-36	loss
Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	96¢	99¢	+$0	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	22¢	40¢	$-14	loss