Win rate
66.1%
185 W / 95 L
Total PnL
$842
realized $-14,491 · unrealized $15,333
Portfolio
$15,333
volume $782,724
Predictions
294
3.4/day · avg $2,662
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 84% +$1,073
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 88¢ | 51¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Geopolitics 76% +$737
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 70¢ | +$10 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 52¢ | 16¢ | $-125 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 6¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | Yes | 95¢ | 92¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
Sports 54% +$386
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Texans vs. Chargers | Texans | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the Indiana Fever win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Economy 86% +$141
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 69% $-121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 7¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 46¢ | 61¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 66¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$16 | win |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Tech 56% $-136
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-253 | loss |
Other 71% $-227
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 66¢ | $-36 | loss |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | No | 40¢ | 36¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 87¢ | 52¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? | No | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 37¢ | +$22 | win |
Culture 0% $-327
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-281 | loss |
Elections 54% $-867
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 82¢ | 83¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 20¢ | 17¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 72¢ | 59¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | win |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portugal election? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3,575 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $700 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $498 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $832 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Jeremiah Ing win Survivor season 49? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $999 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $100 | 05/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $100 | 04/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $100 | 03/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $100 | 02/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $100 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $2,743 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $431 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $1,175 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $752 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $304 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,001 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | No | 76.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $300 | 31/01/2026 |
| US bank failure by January 31? | No | 89.8¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $485 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $200 | 31/01/2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $109 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-65 | $500 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 55.7¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $233 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $395 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $100 | 28/01/2026 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | $794 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $2,606 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $517 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $500 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portugal election? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $900 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 35.4¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $100 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 69.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $100 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $100 | 25/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 56.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $100 | 23/01/2026 |
| Will Oregon win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $1,578 | 20/01/2026 |