Win rate
64.4%
465 W / 257 L
Total PnL
$51,985
realized $8,747 · unrealized $43,239
Portfolio
$43,239
volume $2,579,325
Predictions
615
10.7/day · avg $4,194
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 76% +$45,410
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | $-40 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 24¢ | +$252 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 79¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$60 | win |
Other 62% +$4,680
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$5 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-276 | loss |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 13¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$251 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 85¢ | +$9 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Tucker Carlson federally charged? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | +$5 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 51¢ | 18¢ | +$24 | win |
Politics 71% +$1,383
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | loss |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 72¢ | 66¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$382 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 57¢ | 60¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 54¢ | 53¢ | +$13 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 75¢ | 76¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 75¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 68% +$1,328
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15) | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | Up | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-1,224 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | Up | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$802 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET | Up | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$483 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$205 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | Down | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$121 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Up | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | Up | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | loss |
Sports 100% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Culture 100% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
Finance 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15) | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Elections 50% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 57¢ | 57¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-132 | loss |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Mentions 15% $-303
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-570 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-1,000 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-750 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$852 | $9,976 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$736 | $2,207 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 61.2¢ | 90¢ | +$468 | $3,156 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | +$325 | $1,275 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.5¢ | 98¢ | +$290 | $1,410 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$205 | $2,902 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | +$111 | $319 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $3,760 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 62.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $654 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 56.2¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $281 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 95.9¢ | 10¢ | $-64 | $2,158 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | $3,280 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,245 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | $140 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | $1,542 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 63.8¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $1,276 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | $-656 | $1,918 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $157 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Love" during statement on April 9? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $179 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | +$83 | $5,115 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 42.9¢ | 91¢ | +$41 | $10,783 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $315 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | $-2,276 | $27,952 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $102 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 01/04/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | +$3,361 | $2,301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 54.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,253 | $6,519 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$692 | $3,422 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 67.9¢ | 100¢ | +$621 | $1,354 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$557 | $2,667 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$539 | $2,550 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 77.6¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | $2,372 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$474 | $7,026 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | $570 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 23.6¢ | 0¢ | +$405 | $328 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$373 | $1,570 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$346 | $2,655 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$343 | $5,378 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 40.6¢ | 100¢ | +$323 | $1,552 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 63.1¢ | 100¢ | +$322 | $557 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$321 | $1,489 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 57.1¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$278 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | $965 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 28.3¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | $847 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$214 | $1,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $1,459 | 31/03/2026 |