Win rate
66.7%
8 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$-36
realized $-634 · unrealized $598
Portfolio
$598
volume $5,929
Predictions
37
0.7/day · avg $160
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Weather 50% $-31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? | No | 62¢ | 27¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Other 86% $-39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 30¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the July decision? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? | Yes | 56¢ | 79¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision? | No | 58¢ | 81¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Recent Trades (12)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $120 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $140 | 07/04/2026 |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? | No | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 15/03/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $31 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 18? | No | 79.3¢ | 75¢ | $-13 | $250 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? | No | 62.5¢ | 27¢ | $-52 | $92 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision? | Yes | 16.5¢ | 19¢ | +$23 | $148 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 79¢ | +$12 | $25 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision? | No | 57.8¢ | 81¢ | +$10 | $24 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the July decision? | No | 93.7¢ | 95¢ | +$2 | $112 | 07/07/2026 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 30¢ | +$6 | $24 | 31/12/2026 |