Win rate
78.3%
296 W / 82 L
Total PnL
$5,389
realized $-19,084 · unrealized $24,474
Portfolio
$24,474
volume $14,470,952
Predictions
379
12.8/day · avg $38,182
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 83% +$1,667
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | Yes | 11¢ | 17¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$13 | win |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 10¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 82% +$1,044
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 27¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? | No | 75¢ | 79¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | +$54 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$26 | win |
Elections 79% +$920
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 40¢ | 38¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 41¢ | 40¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 38¢ | 42¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 86¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 75% +$657
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 14¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 21¢ | 20¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 64¢ | 92¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Crypto 90% +$492
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 21¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 84% +$260
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $-105 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | +$36 | win |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-28 | loss |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | +$26 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$11 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 28¢ | +$77 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | +$26 | win |
Finance 72% +$257
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$13 | win |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 9¢ | 10¢ | $-6 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$63 | win |
| Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 33¢ | +$9 | win |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | +$61 | win |
Tech 80% +$71
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 44¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 40¢ | 60¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | No | 9¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | No | 17¢ | 20¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$22 | win |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 22¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 28¢ | +$12 | win |
Other 55% +$59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 51¢ | 52¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 31¢ | +$4 | win |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 2¢ | 4¢ | +$18 | win |
| Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | +$4 | win |
Weather 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 83.4¢ | 90¢ | +$126 | $6,879 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 93.2¢ | 92¢ | +$53 | $3,424 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $1,248 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $214 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,269 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $4,496 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $4,336 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 73¢ | $-4 | $678 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | +$168 | $4,191 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | $209 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 1.4¢ | 1¢ | $-5 | $1,914 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | $2,046 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 3¢ | +$28 | $262 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 2¢ | $-130 | $450 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 95.1¢ | 98¢ | +$57 | $2,018 | 30/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 2¢ | +$79 | $961 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 27.8¢ | 28¢ | +$43 | $1,030 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 19.6¢ | 34¢ | +$24 | $396 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $342 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-158 | $471 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 2¢ | +$209 | $6,553 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | $915 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 4.4¢ | 4¢ | +$41 | $406 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 1¢ | +$272 | $3,170 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 1¢ | +$23 | $457 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 2¢ | +$132 | $2,349 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.9¢ | 4¢ | $-114 | $273 | 17/06/2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 59.1¢ | 64¢ | +$15 | $300 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 64.2¢ | 92¢ | +$22 | $421 | 17/06/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Yes | 8.3¢ | 7¢ | +$21 | $568 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 11.8¢ | 6¢ | $-44 | $232 | 30/06/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 70.8¢ | 84¢ | +$26 | $594 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 74.0¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | $214 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 1¢ | +$93 | $1,762 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 2¢ | +$198 | $3,516 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 2¢ | +$55 | $1,401 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 5¢ | +$132 | $5,177 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 4¢ | +$34 | $1,626 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 4¢ | +$40 | $2,108 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 8¢ | +$38 | $352 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 37.3¢ | 46¢ | +$8 | $230 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-203 | $553 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 1¢ | +$10 | $98 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | $76 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | $108 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | $262 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | $205 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | $142 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 2¢ | $-8 | $1,123 | 20/07/2026 |