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0xd53eF4238Bab3Af3Dc1e81F4C5640dBf42a20B73-1775149557747
0xd53ef4238bab3af3dc1e81f4c5640dbf42a20b73 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
60.4%
29 W / 19 L
Total PnL
$1,117
realized $-5,904 · unrealized $7,020
Portfolio
$7,020
volume $47,476
Predictions
47
3.3/day · avg $1,010
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 62% +$824
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 74¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$34 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 28¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | — |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Politics 80% +$86
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 93¢ | 91¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 100% +$79
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
Other 40% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 26¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 66¢ | 72¢ | +$11 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 28¢ | 30¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 85¢ | +$389 | $1,020 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $674 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $772 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $104 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $177 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $558 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $395 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $94 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $80 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $28 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $91 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 51.9¢ | 14¢ | +$6 | $77 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 86¢ | $-6 | $107 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | $233 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 47¢ | $-31 | $76 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 70¢ | +$16 | $73 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 26¢ | +$191 | $411 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 78.8¢ | 90¢ | +$69 | $794 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 47.6¢ | 44¢ | $-12 | $300 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 69.4¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? | No | 92.7¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 28.4¢ | 30¢ | +$42 | $54 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 99¢ | +$32 | $949 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $1,713 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $614 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $254 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $52 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $250 | 30/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 3¢ | $-44 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 95¢ | +$47 | $71 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 62¢ | +$52 | $543 | 31/05/2026 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | $366 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70.5¢ | 69¢ | +$17 | $310 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 72¢ | +$11 | $129 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 28¢ | $-1 | $43 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91.9¢ | 94¢ | +$34 | $2,292 | 30/06/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 8¢ | $-14 | $151 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 84.1¢ | 96¢ | +$67 | $506 | 30/06/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | $189 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 92.8¢ | 91¢ | $-1 | $37 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $422 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 99¢ | $-6 | $1,282 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.8¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $95 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 72.3¢ | 74¢ | +$57 | $2,104 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88.0¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | $1,160 | 31/12/2026 |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | $44 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 18¢ | $-2 | $44 | 31/12/2026 |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | $302 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 26¢ | $-8 | $35 | 31/12/2026 |