Win rate
51.3%
102 W / 97 L
Total PnL
$-18,073
realized $-19,487 · unrealized $1,413
Portfolio
$1,413
volume $654,645
Predictions
371
4.8/day · avg $1,765
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/01/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 77% +$1,198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-600 | loss |
| Ethereum above $2,600 on October 4? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | +$205 | win |
| Bitcoin above $60,000 on May 10? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Mentions 100% +$400
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Finance 100% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Economy 100% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Elections 60% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | $-379 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 59¢ | 66¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
Sports 40% $-11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 83¢ | 85¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Pistons vs. Wizards | Pistons | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mavericks | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Wizards | Wizards | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Broncos vs. Texans | Broncos | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Other 28% $-2,151
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | $-15 | loss |
| U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Up Only podcast released by October 31? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | loss |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Mallorca vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| UCLA vs. Indiana | UCLA | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-378 | loss |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-1,020 | loss |
| Is John McAfee alive? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Geopolitics 49% $-3,288
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$92 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 45¢ | 30¢ | +$307 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 70¢ | $-1,976 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | +$2,051 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | +$588 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 44¢ | 32¢ | +$98 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 68¢ | $-129 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-568 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | $-820 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | $-2,140 | loss |
Politics 45% $-16,866
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$114 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 63¢ | 61¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $-116 | loss |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 12¢ | 1¢ | +$116 | win |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | No | 90¢ | 99¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 76¢ | 74¢ | $-264 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 71¢ | 60¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 30¢ | 40¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 39¢ | 35¢ | +$99 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10,085 | $5,858 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1,902 | $5,224 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2,733 | $6,466 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1,780 | $876 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2,639 | $602 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 71.4¢ | 0¢ | $-10,558 | $21,129 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | $-682 | $3,797 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | +$608 | $375 | 10/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | $109 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pistons vs. Wizards | Pistons | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 19/03/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mavericks | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 17/03/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Wizards | Wizards | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $782 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $316 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $527 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $72 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | Yes | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $89 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Broncos vs. Texans | Broncos | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $44 | 09/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Hakeem Jeffries in October? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 31/10/2025 |
| Up Only podcast released by October 31? | Yes | 16.9¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | $145 | 31/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $978 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $44 | 26/10/2025 |
| Will Mallorca vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | No | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $106 | 26/10/2025 |
| UCLA vs. Indiana | UCLA | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-378 | $700 | 25/10/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | +$296 | $153 | 24/10/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $162 | 24/10/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $88 | 24/10/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 24/10/2025 |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,020 | $1,020 | 01/10/2025 |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-660 | $660 | 29/04/2025 |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | Yes | 37.3¢ | 0¢ | $-13,578 | $13,620 | 03/02/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $4,888 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $1,966 | 31/12/2024 |
| Is John McAfee alive? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $940 | 31/12/2024 |
| Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $637 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will the $SAFE market cap be between $3-4b one week after launch? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will the $SAFE market cap be between $2-3b one week after launch? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | No | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-196 | $196 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $870 | 30/12/2024 |
| Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $971 | 29/12/2024 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-600 | $600 | 30/11/2024 |
| Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,969 | 05/11/2024 |
| Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $930 | 04/11/2024 |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $37 | 04/11/2024 |
| JUP above $1 one week after launch? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/10/2024 |
| Ethereum above $2,600 on October 4? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $54 | 04/10/2024 |