Win rate
56.5%
139 W / 107 L
Total PnL
$42,192
realized $-55,378 · unrealized $97,570
Portfolio
$97,570
volume $4,766,698
Predictions
217
7.3/day · avg $21,966
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 60% +$22,003
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$968 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-853 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1,459 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | +$554 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | $-3,844 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$1,362 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$732 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 46¢ | 94¢ | +$580 | win |
Politics 57% +$7,423
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 59¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-5,178 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,214 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? | No | 48¢ | 76¢ | +$138 | win |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$120 | win |
Other 55% +$5,964
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 26¢ | 34¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 75¢ | 66¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | win |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 15¢ | +$243 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | No | 47¢ | 85¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 36¢ | +$366 | win |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? | Yes | 61¢ | 26¢ | $-176 | loss |
Economy 75% +$973
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 25¢ | +$193 | win |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 75¢ | +$573 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$229 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Crypto 43% +$384
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 18¢ | +$10 | win |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-1,219 | loss |
Elections 71% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 11¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-248 | loss |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 25% $-312
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | No | 57¢ | 70¢ | +$157 | win |
| Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 33¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-304 | loss |
Finance 25% $-390
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 50¢ | 54¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 10¢ | 6¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-416 | loss |
Mentions 50% $-465
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-480 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$11,637 | $1,119 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$4,859 | $142 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 100¢ | +$691 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $1,067 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,812 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1,033 | $25,719 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 85.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,434 | $2,242 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-3,435 | $99,707 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | $-4,079 | $36,745 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1,086 | $57 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 0.5¢ | 1¢ | +$2,561 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1,462 | $3,301 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1,581 | $7,727 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 99¢ | $-2,557 | $5,149 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | No | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$4,552 | $57 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-4,318 | $16,780 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$12,052 | $1,049 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 43.4¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $229 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $124 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $66 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-10,697 | $337,716 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 91¢ | +$233 | $394 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | No | 8.1¢ | 100¢ | +$734 | $81 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Honor" 3+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $47 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $38 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $307 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $28 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1,569 | $178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 65.3¢ | 88¢ | +$1,396 | $4,518 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 92¢ | +$1,188 | $9,582 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 0¢ | +$959 | $3,272 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 16.4¢ | 100¢ | +$787 | $603 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$693 | $195 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | +$502 | $285 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$358 | $125 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $1,450 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | +$175 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $2,925 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | +$135 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | Yes | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $319 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 41.2¢ | 50¢ | +$21 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by April 30? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $2,616 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 58.8¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $340 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | $2,850 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | No | 66.0¢ | 48¢ | $-32 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |