Win rate
92.9%
496 W / 38 L
Total PnL
$744
realized $-488 · unrealized $1,232
Portfolio
$1,232
volume $102,329
Predictions
800
17.8/day · avg $128
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Culture 75% +$195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hades II win Best Game on Steam Deck at the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | win |
| Will Dispatch win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game on Steam Deck at the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
Politics 91% +$150
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 22¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 65¢ | 60¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India by November 30? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
Weather 96% +$140
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 19¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 100% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Finance 100% +$45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 8¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
Tech 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Elections 33% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French election called by December 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
Other 65% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | $-3 | loss |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 57¢ | 74¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Artemis II launch by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-27 | loss |
| North Korea missile launch by February 28? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Geopolitics 79% $-123
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 56¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | — |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 17? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $71 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $159 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $63 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $103 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 17? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $72 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 17? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 17? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $248 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17? | No | 96.8¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $199 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $198 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 17? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 17? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $94 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $84 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 17? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 17? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 16? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $42 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $75 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $165 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on April 16? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $86 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $148 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 16? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $124 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $74 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 16? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 16? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $126 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on April 16? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $54 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $87 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 16? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $71 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $111 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 16? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 16? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 16? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 16? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $96 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $49 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 16? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 16? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 16? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 16/04/2026 |