Win rate
60.5%
265 W / 173 L
Total PnL
$1,651
realized $795 · unrealized $855
Portfolio
$855
volume $1,172,652
Predictions
611
24.2/day · avg $1,919
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 81% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other | Yes | -0¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 54¢ | 55¢ | +$0 | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | — | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 35¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 70% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Beto O'Rourke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next President of Vietnam? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Crypto 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 11? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Mentions 56% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Economy 19% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Sports 93% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | No | 77¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 32% $-138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | -0¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 9¢ | 14¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-67 | loss |
Culture 31% $-162
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 41% $-386
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $971 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $626 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $1,449 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $1,449 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $300 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,387 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $566 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,714 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $58 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,276 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,043 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,955 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $566 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $738 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $72 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $10,098 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $10,056 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $10,123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $10,103 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $9,621 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $10,123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $10,123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $1,972 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $1,972 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $5,006 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $112 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 3.5¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | $1,614 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 84.0¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | $1,656 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 15.5¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | $306 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $67 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $501 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $9,898 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $5,161 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $45,306 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $47,004 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $6,500 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $12,442 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $12,707 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $2,719 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will VCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,754 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Hofstra win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Auburn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Howard win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Santa Clara win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will BYU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will NC State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Furman win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $2,772 | 04/04/2026 |