Win rate
73.5%
97 W / 35 L
Total PnL
$472
realized $-398 · unrealized $870
Portfolio
$870
volume $70,404
Predictions
242
6.9/day · avg $291
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 83% +$302
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 69¢ | 99¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 91¢ | 84¢ | $-16 | loss |
Sports 87% +$161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff | Karolina Muchova | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | Elena Rybakina | 92¢ | 66¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider | Elena Rybakina | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff | Coco Gauff | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Kraken vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Sabres vs. Blackhawks | Sabres | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Sharks vs. Predators | Sharks | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Wild vs. Blues | Blues | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Suns | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
Other 71% +$142
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 20¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 38¢ | 62¢ | +$15 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton | Ben Shelton | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca | Joao Fonseca | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Shanghai Sharks vs. Fujian Sturgeons | Shanghai Sharks | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Crypto 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 50% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 61% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 76¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Finance 50% $-59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 40¢ | 52¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? | Up | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Esports 0% $-80
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Sharks vs. Fujian Sturgeons | Shanghai Sharks | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $180 | 17/04/2026 |
| Kraken vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $180 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner | Anyones Legend | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $180 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $26 | 16/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry | Carlos Alcaraz | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $80 | 16/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $26 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $221 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $79 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $239 | 15/04/2026 |
| Sabres vs. Blackhawks | Sabres | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $45 | 14/04/2026 |
| Sharks vs. Predators | Sharks | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $180 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $82 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 14/04/2026 |
| Wild vs. Blues | Blues | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 14/04/2026 |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Suns | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $93 | 13/04/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $180 | 13/04/2026 |
| Madrid: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Joanna Garland | Joanna Garland | 51.0¢ | 50¢ | $-1 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Madrid: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Joanna Garland | Marina Bassols Ribera | 51.0¢ | 50¢ | $-2 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 76ers | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 24.0¢ | 1¢ | $-66 | $69 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $200 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Timberwolves | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $180 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $180 | 11/04/2026 |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Lakers | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $160 | 11/04/2026 |
| Nets vs. Bucks | Bucks | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $180 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $88 | 11/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $146 | 11/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Kings | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $180 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $180 | 10/04/2026 |
| Raptors vs. Knicks | Knicks | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $180 | 10/04/2026 |
| 76ers vs. Rockets | Rockets | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $80 | 10/04/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | JD Gaming | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $91 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 71.4¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $200 | 10/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Raptors | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 09/04/2026 |
| Pacers vs. Nets | Pacers | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Greenland" during events with Rutte? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 34.5¢ | 7¢ | +$44 | $167 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $247 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $28 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $89 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 30? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 03/04/2026 |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | Lakers | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $50 | 03/04/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Pistons | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $38 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 25.5¢ | 50¢ | +$142 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |