Win rate
68.4%
26 W / 12 L
Total PnL
$-392
realized $-4,416 · unrealized $4,024
Portfolio
$4,024
volume $171,323
Predictions
38
1.1/day · avg $4,508
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 100% +$275
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$275 | win |
Culture 100% +$134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | win |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$17 | win |
Tech 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Other 50% $-149
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 28¢ | 18¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-152 | loss |
Geopolitics 65% $-709
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | +$102 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-258 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 1¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 4¢ | $-441 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-348 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
Recent Trades (38)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$275 | $2,225 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $282 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82.3¢ | 0¢ | $-348 | $363 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $249 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 85.0¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | $61 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $2,837 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $11,296 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $207 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | No | 44.2¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $882 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $292 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | Yes | 66.4¢ | 100¢ | $-152 | $962 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $1,478 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $309 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $205 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $118 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? | No | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $43 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? | Yes | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $33 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | No | 34.5¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $341 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-10 | $2,518 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $576 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | $1,400 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 1¢ | +$102 | $511 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 1¢ | $-195 | $730 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $-258 | $939 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 31.5¢ | 4¢ | $-441 | $626 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $37 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $147 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 66¢ | +$11 | $474 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 77.0¢ | 90¢ | +$17 | $97 | 07/06/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 86.5¢ | 94¢ | +$101 | $1,565 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 30/06/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 60.8¢ | 56¢ | $-106 | $1,270 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $352 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | $4,824 | 31/12/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $572 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $248 | 31/12/2026 |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 28.4¢ | 18¢ | $-7 | $41 | 01/01/2027 |