Win rate
82.8%
584 W / 121 L
Total PnL
$-883
realized $-1,596 · unrealized $714
Portfolio
$714
volume $943,129
Predictions
951
7.3/day · avg $992
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 80% +$339
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 72% +$275
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in January 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 93% +$211
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 71¢ | 92¢ | +$12 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | Yes | 66¢ | 18¢ | +$3 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 95¢ | 52¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 97¢ | 65¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$21 | win |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Crypto 92% +$163
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Tether insolvent in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will extreme heatwaves be the #1 searched news on Google this year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 67% $-33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 97¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Hawks | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Padres | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Blue Jays vs. Phillies | Phillies | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Geopolitics 93% $-1,134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$12 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-1,130 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Iran Strike on Israel by January 15? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 88% $-1,147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19? | No | 42¢ | 64¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 17? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 15? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 13? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 11? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19? | No | 42.0¢ | 64¢ | +$13 | $25 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 17? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $61 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $67 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15? | No | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $58 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 15? | No | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 13? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $46 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $438 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? | Yes | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? | No | 64.5¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $87 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 11? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $22 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 10? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $80 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $61 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 10? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $22 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8? | No | 55.3¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $44 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 7? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $118 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $57 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 6? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $54 | 06/04/2026 |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Hawks | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $161 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $82 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5? | No | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $64 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 4? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 3? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $72 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 3? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $23 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3? | No | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $28 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $188 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $211 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $188 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 2? | Yes | 84.7¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $85 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $46 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $38 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $32 | 01/04/2026 |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $6,488 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $5,030 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $412 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $54 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 30? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $111 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $195 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 30? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30? | Yes | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $134 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 30? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $20 | 30/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,350 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 29/03/2026 |