Win rate
48.7%
281 W / 296 L
Total PnL
$1,506
realized $-1,686 · unrealized $3,192
Portfolio
$3,192
volume $302,663
Predictions
634
8.8/day · avg $477
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 49% +$1,487
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 63¢ | 57¢ | +$20 | win |
| Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 47¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | win |
| Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 45¢ | 64¢ | +$18 | win |
| Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 44¢ | 32¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 49¢ | 26¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 59¢ | 68¢ | +$44 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 56¢ | 82¢ | +$29 | win |
Weather 71% +$408
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 38¢ | 20¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | Yes | 59¢ | 86¢ | +$52 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
Crypto 43% +$349
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 62¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 84¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 72¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? | No | 47¢ | 80¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 39¢ | 68¢ | +$22 | win |
Geopolitics 58% +$189
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 65¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 53¢ | 47¢ | $-16 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 43¢ | 30¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 40¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 55¢ | 94¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 80¢ | +$37 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 39¢ | 60¢ | +$23 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 4¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Finance 67% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKX IPO in 2026? | No | 59¢ | 86¢ | +$55 | win |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | No | 44¢ | 72¢ | +$20 | win |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 28¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | No | 40¢ | 41¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 24¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 62% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 39¢ | 82¢ | +$6 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
Politics 54% +$56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 50¢ | 60¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 54¢ | 68¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 60¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 39¢ | 38¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Esports 80% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | Natus Vincere | 59¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Spirit | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
Culture 0% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 52¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Economy 0% $-125
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Sports 37% $-1,112
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 86¢ | +$40 | win |
| Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 21¢ | 3¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 29¢ | 4¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) | Pantoja | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $35 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 48.9¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 15? | No | 59.8¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 52.5¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $201 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 47.6¢ | 20¢ | +$61 | $164 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 | Under | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 26.5¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score | No | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 42.4¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $100 | 10/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | No | 45.9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $35 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 44.4¢ | 21¢ | +$27 | $189 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 27.7¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 07/04/2026 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | No | 34.1¢ | 100¢ | +$318 | $202 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | No | 40.4¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $45 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $65 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $66 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $35 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 57.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $35 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by March 31, 2026? | No | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | No | 34.9¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $40 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Yes | 50.5¢ | 0¢ | +$59 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? | Yes | 60.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by March 31? | No | 46.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | No | 39.8¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $151 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | $200 | 22/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | Elena Rybakina | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $61 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | FC Bayern München | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $25 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? | No | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) | FK Bodø/Glimt | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $590 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $25 | 14/03/2026 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score | No | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $30 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? | No | 52.9¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $25 | 11/03/2026 |
| Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 | Under | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $30 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $271 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $60 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 39.6¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $30 | 07/03/2026 |