Win rate
51.2%
42 W / 40 L
Total PnL
$1,033
realized $-5,321 · unrealized $6,354
Portfolio
$6,354
volume $95,866
Predictions
216
3.0/day · avg $444
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/05/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Culture 67% +$690
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$458 | win |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$274 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Other 53% +$430
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 49¢ | 49¢ | $-3 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 23¢ | 5¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
Tech 100% +$216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 38% +$112
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 9¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting? | No | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$72 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Elections 40% +$107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 48¢ | 34¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Economy 40% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 70¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 50% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 53% $-442
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 10¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 62¢ | $-403 | loss |
| Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 71.2¢ | 99¢ | +$236 | $601 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $324 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $121 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | $94 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $46 | 01/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 20.9¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $162 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$458 | $1,557 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$274 | $3,428 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $258 | 15/03/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $800 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $93 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $503 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $470 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $1,065 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $72 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $264 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $213 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $208 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $97 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $204 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $899 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $100 | 17/11/2025 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 17? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | $93 | 17/11/2025 |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 16/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $2,195 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $500 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $500 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $502 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 31/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $505 | 29/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $1,502 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 22? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 22/10/2025 |
| Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $110 | 03/10/2025 |
| Scroll airdrop in 2024? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 31/12/2024 |
| Puffer airdrop in 2024? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $224 | 31/12/2024 |
| Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $36 | 30/09/2024 |
| Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $24 | 01/01/1970 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Yes | 46.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $28 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 98¢ | +$94 | $1,332 | 24/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting? | No | 92.5¢ | 98¢ | +$72 | $1,185 | 24/04/2026 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | $32 | 28/04/2026 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | $37 | 28/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | $351 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 77.2¢ | 76¢ | $-8 | $865 | 30/04/2026 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | No | 65.8¢ | 66¢ | +$1 | $76 | 30/04/2026 |