Win rate
58.3%
119 W / 85 L
Total PnL
$357
realized $-2,565 · unrealized $2,922
Portfolio
$2,922
volume $111,136
Predictions
3,413
44.2/day · avg $33
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/05/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 65% +$395
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? | Yes | 57¢ | 45¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 46¢ | 80¢ | +$26 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 80¢ | 45¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? | No | 73¢ | 68¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 78¢ | 52¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 55¢ | 92¢ | +$15 | win |
| Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 30% +$252
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Geopolitics 77% +$90
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 43¢ | 82¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 67¢ | 94¢ | +$16 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 26¢ | $-13 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 83¢ | 72¢ | $-5 | loss |
Politics 100% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 13¢ | 99¢ | +$40 | win |
Elections 50% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 31¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 32¢ | 10¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 65¢ | 90¢ | +$51 | win |
Crypto 66% $-210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | Up | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Up | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Up | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Down | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | Down | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET | Up | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | Up | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET | Down | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | Up | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 100¢ | +$585 | $165 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 58.7¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $108 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 68.5¢ | 99¢ | +$27 | $60 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $91 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $94 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $252 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 31.9¢ | 10¢ | $-44 | $65 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.7¢ | 90¢ | +$51 | $131 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | $456 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 85.1¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $91 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $72 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $39 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $62 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 20.9¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $75 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $88 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $233 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of March 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 70.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? | Yes | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 80.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by April 30? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $68 on the final trading day of March 2026? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | $138 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $56 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $41 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $41 | 29/03/2026 |