pantomime

Geopolitics 61% +$44,965 $1,117,984 vol · 180 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	29¢	0¢	+$1,936	win
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-207	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	20¢	0¢	+$395	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	29¢	72¢	+$380	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$-1,480	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	60¢	0¢	+$5,271	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	75¢	74¢	$-206	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	24¢	26¢	+$437	win
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$55	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	14¢	0¢	$-53	loss

Other 45% +$40,723 $2,618,955 vol · 771 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	64¢	100¢	+$299	win
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	67¢	76¢	+$220	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	5¢	4¢	+$0	—
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	14¢	18¢	+$-0	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$-200	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	6¢	5¢	+$45	win
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	No	66¢	97¢	+$80	win
Will Matt Patricia be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-200	loss
Will Kenny Dillingham be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?	No	100¢	100¢	$-4,482	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	51¢	52¢	+$60	win

Politics 61% +$32,214 $1,718,555 vol · 640 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	50¢	61¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	+$0	—
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	57¢	76¢	+$105	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	99¢	100¢	$-434	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-3,682	loss
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	80¢	92¢	+$3	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	No	1¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	87¢	92¢	$-467	loss
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	11¢	0¢	$-904	loss
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	6¢	3¢	+$316	win

Culture 60% +$17,646 $598,606 vol · 196 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?	No	99¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?	No	85¢	100¢	+$179	win
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	68¢	100¢	+$1,370	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$460	win
Will Dua Lipa be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-261	loss
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$378	win
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$124	win
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$62	win
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$33	win

Economy 47% +$9,923 $608,911 vol · 57 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession in 2025?	No	40¢	100¢	$-126	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	+$233	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$40	win
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-214	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-351	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	95¢	100¢	+$140	win
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$370	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	No	85¢	100¢	$-1,215	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-253	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	$-107	loss

Elections 43% +$6,561 $1,080,106 vol · 482 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	1¢	+$0	—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	48¢	52¢	+$121	win
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	14¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-432	loss
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-73	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	22¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	6¢	26¢	+$549	win
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	96¢	100¢	$-1,365	loss
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?	Yes	71¢	99¢	$-146	loss

Tech 68% +$1,935 $220,730 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	4¢	0¢	$-64	loss
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$164	win
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$36	win
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	26¢	100¢	+$25	win
OpenAI browser in 2025?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	No	3¢	0¢	+$9	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	13¢	0¢	$-190	loss
OpenAI browser by October 31?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$484	win
OpenAI browser by October 31?	No	13¢	0¢	+$384	win

Weather 36% +$76 $18,141 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup?	No	94¢	100¢	$-48	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-1,018	loss
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-607	loss
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—

Mentions 50% $-38 $138 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Lebron tweet again in November?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Esports 33% $-265 $737 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
CS: Astralis vs Legacy	Astralis	54¢	100¢	+$113	win
League of Legends: OKSavingsBank BRION vs. DRX	DRX	47¢	0¢	$-209	loss
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?	No	99¢	0¢	$-169	loss

Crypto 66% $-476 $114,808 vol · 61 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?	No	6¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during speech on October 14?	No	89¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 22-28?	No	100¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	68¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will Taylor Swift say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?	No	92¢	100¢	+$59	win
Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?	No	45¢	100¢	+$56	win
Solana ETF approved by July 31?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-47	loss
Bitcoin all time high by July 11?	No	5¢	0¢	$-56	loss

Finance 50% $-881 $36,996 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lance Leipold be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$2,081	win
Will Lance Leipold be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,443	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$93	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-417	loss
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$327	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	84¢	100¢	+$75	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by September 30?	No	94¢	100¢	+$101	win
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-624	loss

Sports 44% $-9,724 $197,996 vol · 218 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$44	win
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	49¢	98¢	+$644	win
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	41¢	0¢	$-820	loss
Flyers vs. Devils	Flyers	46¢	100¢	+$1,080	win
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings	Blue Jackets	50¢	100¢	$-100	loss
Blackhawks vs. Kraken	Kraken	61¢	0¢	$-1,068	loss
Blues vs. Ducks	Blues	43¢	100¢	+$1,140	win
Canadiens vs. Devils	Devils	47¢	0¢	$-822	loss
Sabres vs. Capitals	Sabres	51¢	0¢	$-892	loss
Flyers vs. Islanders	Flyers	42¢	100¢	+$1,160	win