cheezzydad

Economy 33% +$468 $1,223 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	73¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-63	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$342	win
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-122	loss

Finance 50% +$22 $602 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$120	win
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-98	loss

Tech 50% +$4 $139 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	75¢	100¢	$-2	loss

Other 49% $-156 $8,893 vol · 45 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$-14	loss
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	No	92¢	92¢	$-3	loss
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more?	No	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
ICE shooter charged by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$23	win
Weed rescheduled in 2025?	No	68¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	No	81¢	100¢	+$6	win
Rihanna Baby: Boy or Girl?	Girl	50¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-10	loss

Geopolitics 25% $-171 $566 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	No	93¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?	Yes	97¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?	No	35¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?	No	69¢	0¢	$-141	loss

Culture 0% $-619 $619 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-619	loss

Politics 47% $-1,385 $21,584 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-9	loss
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	5¢	+$18	win
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	73¢	73¢	+$9	win
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Yes	51¢	46¢	$-12	loss
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	41¢	38¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-200	loss
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?	No	63¢	0¢	+$20	win
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	No	87¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-6	loss

Elections 26% $-28,037 $51,088 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	39¢	55¢	+$254	win
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	82¢	84¢	+$19	win
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	51¢	56¢	+$22	win
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	61¢	63¢	$-18	loss
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	65¢	81¢	+$25	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$529	win
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	54¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$240	win
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-2,303	loss