Win rate
47.3%
329 W / 367 L
Total PnL
$137,291
realized $92,529 · unrealized $44,761
Portfolio
$44,761
volume $15,767,119
Predictions
685
6.7/day · avg $23,018
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 51% +$79,134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 22¢ | +$5,315 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 16¢ | +$2,714 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$1,442 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 84¢ | +$685 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 9¢ | $-12 | loss |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 30¢ | $-326 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 76¢ | +$1,368 | win |
Politics 58% +$40,407
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 21¢ | $-180 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 60¢ | 61¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 25¢ | 27¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-232 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$960 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-910 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$285 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 16¢ | $-15 | loss |
Other 34% +$22,888
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | +$159 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-142 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 53¢ | 78¢ | +$44 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 42¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $-55 | loss |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 5¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $-771 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$4,128 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-62 | loss |
Culture 50% +$911
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$892 | win |
| Will Kanye West release an album before July? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | win |
| Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-227 | loss |
Economy 100% +$693
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$445 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$248 | win |
Elections 54% +$382
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$8 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 51¢ | 52¢ | +$431 | win |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | No | 29¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-421 | loss |
Tech 0% $-25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Finance 33% $-357
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by August 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-184 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$389 | win |
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-355 | loss |
| Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
Sports 47% $-1,440
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference? | Yes | 11¢ | 14¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Rangers vs. Lightning | Rangers | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | win |
| Stars vs. Sabres | Sabres | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Canadiens vs. Flyers | Flyers | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | win |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Hurricanes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | win |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | Capitals | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) | Cub Swanson | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
Crypto 34% $-3,202
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET | Up | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | Up | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-678 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$2,660 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$262 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $130 | 16/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 28.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,744 | $2,832 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rangers vs. Lightning | Rangers | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | $105 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | +$79 | $281 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | $-441 | $2,402 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 2¢ | $-491 | $2,528 | 15/04/2026 |
| Maple Leafs vs. Senators | Maple Leafs | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | $133 | 15/04/2026 |
| Stars vs. Sabres | Sabres | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Canadiens vs. Flyers | Flyers | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $87 | 14/04/2026 |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Hurricanes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | $94 | 14/04/2026 |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | Capitals | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $84 | 14/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) | Cub Swanson | 54.7¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $205 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Paulo Costa | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Johnny Walker | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $152 | 12/04/2026 |
| Lightning vs. Bruins | Lightning | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $108 | 11/04/2026 |
| Senators vs. Islanders | Islanders | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $102 | 11/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,023 | $11,810 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 24.8¢ | 100¢ | +$864 | $4,953 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 39.3¢ | 0¢ | $-450 | $1,988 | 07/04/2026 |
| Panthers vs. Penguins | Panthers | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bruins vs. Lightning | Bruins | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 04/04/2026 |
| Red Wings vs. Rangers | Red Wings | 42.9¢ | 0¢ | $-343 | $343 | 04/04/2026 |
| Jets vs. Stars | Jets | 28.7¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | $111 | 03/04/2026 |
| Canadiens vs. Rangers | Canadiens | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $108 | 02/04/2026 |
| Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes | Blue Jackets | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 02/04/2026 |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | Bruins | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 02/04/2026 |
| Penguins vs. Lightning | Penguins | 30.4¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | $121 | 02/04/2026 |
| Sabres vs. Senators | Sabres | 36.5¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $146 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | $226 | 01/04/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 55.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10,020 | $48,105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5,408 | $115,350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3,969 | $4,888 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$3,550 | $1,758 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,818 | $21,410 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,322 | $15,887 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" during executive order signing today? | Yes | 29.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,135 | $944 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | +$767 | $2,293 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | +$678 | $2,726 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 60.6¢ | 100¢ | +$445 | $2,422 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$403 | $1,415 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | +$356 | $5,947 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | +$191 | $263 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$118 | $3,266 | 31/03/2026 |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | Canadiens | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 26.5¢ | 0¢ | +$102 | $717 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $316 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $870 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 24.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |