steeplejack

Geopolitics 71% +$66,982 $2,209,371 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	66¢	76¢	+$5,820	win
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	10¢	13¢	+$33	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-11,743	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	45¢	0¢	$-36,355	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	18¢	30¢	+$10,048	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-19,089	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	15¢	100¢	+$27,420	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	38¢	0¢	+$852	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	27¢	92¢	+$3,380	win
Senators vs. Panthers	Senators	63¢	0¢	$-31,500	loss

Other 75% +$59,149 $1,236,295 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	4¢	5¢	+$2,391	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	34¢	36¢	+$25,533	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	50¢	64¢	+$74	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$295,663	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	6¢	1¢	+$8,259	win
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Invictus Gaming	59¢	0¢	$-33,039	loss

Politics 64% $-1,586 $119,899 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	Yes	10¢	2¢	$-1,825	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-3,879	loss
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	29¢	0¢	$-671	loss

Elections 36% $-2,343 $265,566 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	69¢	92¢	$-28,712	loss
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-1,369	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	18¢	1¢	+$60	win
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	41¢	0¢	$-4,926	loss
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	56¢	0¢	$-12,977	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	97¢	99¢	$-63	loss

Sports 57% $-6,953 $65,797 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Warriors vs. Suns	Suns	59¢	58¢	$-2	loss
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)	Raptors	89¢	100¢	+$220	win
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)	Thunder	84¢	100¢	+$4	win
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	41¢	0¢	$-15,874	loss
Jets vs. Blackhawks	Jets	58¢	100¢	+$11,760	win
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets	Hurricanes	55¢	100¢	+$12,600	win
Devils vs. Rangers	Devils	54¢	0¢	$-15,660	loss

Esports 20% $-88,479 $139,233 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Nigma Galaxy	32¢	0¢	$-24,378	loss
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner	LNG Esports	46¢	0¢	$-22,893	loss
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Dplus KIA	31¢	0¢	$-15,566	loss
Valorant: Dplus vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Playoffs	Dplus	67¢	0¢	$-49,138	loss