Win rate
66.1%
209 W / 107 L
Total PnL
$-6,366
realized $-34,271 · unrealized $27,906
Portfolio
$27,906
volume $320,356
Predictions
355
4.7/day · avg $902
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 68% +$667
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 64¢ | +$7 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 56¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 83¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $-17 | loss |
Sports 61% +$374
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 15¢ | +$6 | win |
| Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5 | Under | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Cavaliers | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Thunder | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5 | Over | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Nuggets | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| 76ers vs. Pelicans | 76ers | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-289 | loss |
Politics 60% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-198 | loss |
| TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Economy 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 0% $-107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 53¢ | 64¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | No | 39¢ | 20¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Mentions 50% $-147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | loss |
Tech 17% $-230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | loss |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of January? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Culture 70% $-262
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-135 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will "Return to Silent Hill" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 2.5m? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Finance 50% $-371
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-372 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? | Down | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 67% $-2,061
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | Up | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-2,137 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1AM ET | Down | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 9AM ET | Up | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1AM ET | Up | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Geopolitics 72% $-4,195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 40¢ | $-473 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$47 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 18¢ | $-289 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 37¢ | 40¢ | +$26 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$542 | $1,928 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $3,997 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | $2,012 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 68.2¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | $510 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $2,632 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 62.7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,389 | $1,400 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 70.5¢ | 15¢ | $-261 | $335 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 99¢ | +$77 | $2,280 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 86.5¢ | 0¢ | $-3,170 | $3,215 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $100 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $50 | 01/04/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$657 | $3,907 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 70.4¢ | 100¢ | +$448 | $1,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$277 | $4,881 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | $1,796 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | $1,537 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | $1,956 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 63.9¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $564 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 73.2¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $2,635 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $346 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $599 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $869 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $310 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $2,220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $605 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $1,100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $800 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $942 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $961 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,493 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $230 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | No | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |