Win rate
93.5%
2132 W / 149 L
Total PnL
$71,031
realized $26,513 · unrealized $44,518
Portfolio
$44,518
volume $11,747,880
Predictions
2,412
19.8/day · avg $4,871
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 94% +$23,803
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 81¢ | 99¢ | +$450 | win |
| Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 91¢ | +$4 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 91¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$135 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$130 | win |
Geopolitics 94% +$18,573
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$117 | win |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 44¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 84¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
Finance 95% +$8,634
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 35¢ | 94¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | Yes | 52¢ | 26¢ | +$0 | win |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 76¢ | +$25 | win |
| Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in February 2026 (ET)? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will iRobot announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 22¢ | 27¢ | +$23 | win |
| xAI IPO before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 29¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 91% +$8,533
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 21¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$54 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Michigan in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 82% +$7,526
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLS delays another CPI release before 2027? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-38 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 58¢ | 97¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 53¢ | 7¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 93% +$2,435
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 62¢ | +$75 | win |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$34 | win |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Esports 96% +$2,126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | FURIA | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner | Team Falcons | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | PARIVISION | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | Vitality | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | Liquid | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 1 Winner | MOUZ | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | 9z | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | Aurora Gaming | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | Team Falcons | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | NRG | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 98% +$649
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 10km Interval Start Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Linn Svahn (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Jessie Diggins (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Federico Pellegrino (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) - Completed match? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 89% +$314
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 11¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 47¢ | 57¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | Yes | 63¢ | 88¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Japanese Snap Election Called by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
Culture 100% +$188
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Sergey "hally" Shavaev win the HLTV Coach of the Year award | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut win the HLTV Awper of the Year award | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Valeriy "b1t" Vakhovskiy win the HLTV Anchor of the Year award | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo win the HLTV IGL of the Year award | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Danil "Molodoy" Golubenko win the HLTV Rookie of the Year award | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 100% +$158
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 100% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by November 30? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets on September 6, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 88% $-2,410
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 1¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 2¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1,235 | win |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-289 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | $2,371 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $6,036 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $41 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $308 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $5,657 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $8,828 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $193 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $723 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,498 | 14/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $41 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Ass" or "Shit" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $386 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | Yes | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $316 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $103 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $101 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $1,423 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $13,523 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $9,771 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,233 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the April Meeting? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,618 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 11.1¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | $95 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | $61,601 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | +$218 | $528 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $380 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 35.7¢ | 7¢ | +$58 | $468 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the April decision? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,517 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,059 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | Yes | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,654 | 03/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $205 | 02/04/2026 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $316 | 01/04/2026 |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $369 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Russell 2000 (RUT) hit 2600 (HIGH) in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $212 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,235 | $5,507 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31.5¢ | 100¢ | +$957 | $7,428 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$766 | $16,809 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$657 | $17,507 | 31/03/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$614 | $8,753 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$598 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $29,176 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$488 | $517 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$422 | $84,254 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$347 | $7,716 | 31/03/2026 |
| Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | +$288 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | $2,010 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $1,985 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 57.7¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | $1,661 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $1,538 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $9,367 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $2,449 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 88¢ | +$110 | $1,771 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 0¢ | +$108 | $251 | 31/03/2026 |