Artaius

Geopolitics 58% +$6,361 $246,963 vol · 236 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$100	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?	No	60¢	100¢	+$85	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	81¢	0¢	+$3	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	24¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	57¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	83¢	91¢	+$30	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	59¢	69¢	+$16	win

Other 61% +$5,320 $166,533 vol · 322 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	38¢	40¢	+$9	win
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	24¢	25¢	+$11	win
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	97¢	100¢	+$8	win
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	83¢	82¢	+$0	—
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	No	75¢	72¢	$-10	loss
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	95¢	96¢	+$1	win
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	79¢	96¢	$-18	loss
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	96¢	93¢	$-79	loss
Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?	No	90¢	80¢	$-652	loss

Tech 58% +$2,049 $61,837 vol · 67 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	17¢	21¢	+$8	win
Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	97¢	100¢	$-312	loss
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-158	loss
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-78	loss
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	87¢	100¢	$-734	loss
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	66¢	100¢	$-962	loss
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	46¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$98	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	65¢	100¢	+$87	win
GPT ads by December 31?	No	88¢	100¢	+$75	win

Crypto 57% +$862 $30,816 vol · 29 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	74¢	84¢	+$0	win
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	No	74¢	84¢	+$43	win
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	56¢	78¢	$-105	loss
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	37¢	100¢	+$134	win
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	22¢	100¢	+$2	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-855	loss
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?	No	69¢	100¢	+$49	win
Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-86	loss
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	59¢	39¢	+$205	win
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-15	loss

Finance 67% +$691 $2,568 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ares Management (ARES) beat quarterly earnings?	No	34¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	93¢	100¢	+$89	win
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	72¢	100¢	+$624	win

Sports 60% +$518 $1,581 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Tate	29¢	0¢	$-387	loss
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?	No	27¢	100¢	+$64	win
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-24	loss

Weather 75% +$45 $2,213 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	5¢	4¢	+$58	win
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	94¢	96¢	$-44	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	50¢	0¢	+$19	win
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$12	win

Esports 100% +$38 $102 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs	Metizport	72¢	100¢	+$38	win

Mentions 43% $-11 $586 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	No	87¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	20¢	100¢	+$87	win
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	No	80¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 16 than day before?	Yes	58¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 16 than day before?	No	49¢	0¢	$-37	loss

Elections 29% $-11 $1,034 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	98¢	96¢	+$0	—
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-54	loss
Spain snap election called in 2025?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	No	12¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	No	55¢	100¢	+$85	win
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	62¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	63¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	No	50¢	100¢	$-2	loss

Culture 33% $-78 $294 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	47¢	65¢	$-7	loss
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 79 and 82 million views on week 1?	No	25¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will MrBeast's Celebrity Challenge video get between 76 and 79 million views on week 1?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?	No	81¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?	Yes	77¢	0¢	$-46	loss

Politics 55% $-503 $18,397 vol · 95 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$89	win
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	84¢	93¢	$-13	loss
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	No	17¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	17¢	8¢	$-13	loss
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	49¢	48¢	+$2	win
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	51¢	52¢	+$21	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	18¢	100¢	+$193	win
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$63	win