Win rate
60.6%
377 W / 245 L
Total PnL
$198,815
realized $180,101 · unrealized $18,714
Portfolio
$18,714
volume $4,941,391
Predictions
568
2.5/day · avg $8,700
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 53% +$166,141
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | 33¢ | 32¢ | $-1 | loss |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Curtis Blaydes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$286 | win |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Josh Hokit | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-210 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$688 | win |
| Will Megan Oldhamm (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$184 | win |
| Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card) | Strickland | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$703 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Delija | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-2,664 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) | Ige | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-9,251 | loss |
| Will the announcers say "30 second" during Strickland vs. Hernandez? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Politics 66% +$11,245
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Delaware in 2026? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$603 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 6¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? | No | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-134 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 99¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Death to America" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 22¢ | 20¢ | $-5 | loss |
Tech 80% +$5,394
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$904 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$873 | win |
| Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$800 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$1,464 | win |
| Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$1,224 | win |
| Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Culture 50% +$4,645
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | loss |
| Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$806 | win |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Umamusume: Pretty Derby win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | loss |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Game Direction at the 2025 Game Awards? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Finance 78% +$4,179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$932 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$914 | win |
| Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will anyone say "IMAX" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will anyone say "Landlord" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
Other 67% +$4,133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Stew Peters be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels | North Carolina Tar Heels | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-324 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$6,681 | win |
| Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts by Jan 31? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-1,250 | loss |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
Elections 53% +$3,113
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will Tim Walz say "Reelection" during his press conference on January 5? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Bloc Quebecois win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 0–5%? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | win |
| Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 0–5%? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | loss |
Geopolitics 67% +$2,012
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$473 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1,354 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 31¢ | 7¢ | +$899 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-2,658 | loss |
| NATO Article 5 by March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Russian strike on Poland by September 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Mentions 48% +$452
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$142 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? | No | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-398 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
Economy 75% +$124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will the unemployment rate for February be exactly 4.0%? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will the unemployment rate for February be exactly 4.1%? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Weather 50% $-209
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-293 | loss |
Esports 0% $-290
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant: Fnatic vs NRG (BO3) | Fnatic | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-290 | loss |
Crypto 38% $-2,142
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | Up | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Down | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-310 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Down | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-1,600 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | Down | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$386 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-305 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | Up | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-394 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET | Up | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 21.7¢ | 20¢ | $-5 | $97 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | $17,466 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-319 | $319 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $66 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 75.7¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,354 | $20,577 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $101 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "America" or "US" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $213 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $119 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Salute" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Curtis Blaydes | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | +$286 | $245 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $134 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | Up | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Josh Hokit | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | $-210 | $747 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Down | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-310 | $310 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fantastic" during events with Rutte? | No | 38.3¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $85 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Out of NATO" or "Withdraw" during events with Rutte? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $199 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Macron" or "France" during events with Rutte? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fantastic" during events with Rutte? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,450 | $3,000 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 31.4¢ | 7¢ | +$899 | $3,213 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 65.8¢ | 100¢ | +$438 | $987 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,658 | $3,119 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $6,084 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $52 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 26.9¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $132 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | No | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1,155 | $380 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | $2,200 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $270 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $159 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peace" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $69 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? | No | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $62 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | No | 30.3¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | $125 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $-188 | $188 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1,030 | $4,113 | 01/04/2026 |
| NATO Article 5 by March 31? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Stew Peters be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Angelina Keeley be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $90 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $54 | 25/03/2026 |
| VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels | North Carolina Tar Heels | 78.8¢ | 0¢ | $-324 | $324 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$688 | $1,116 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4,157 | $11,628 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$806 | $1,194 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 41.4¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | $164 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during Women's History Month event? | No | 64.4¢ | 100¢ | +$189 | $343 | 12/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Title IX" or "Title 9" during Women's History Month event? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $140 | 12/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Darling" or "Honey" during Women's History Month event? | Yes | 70.9¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $142 | 12/03/2026 |