Win rate
82.1%
1260 W / 275 L
Total PnL
$67,259
realized $-231,324 · unrealized $298,583
Portfolio
$298,583
volume $11,165,630
Predictions
1,617
12.6/day · avg $6,905
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/03/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 89% +$31,023
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | No | 24¢ | 40¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$56 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$32 | win |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$20 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
Economy 79% +$14,427
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 40¢ | 1¢ | +$570 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-2,734 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 40¢ | 92¢ | +$902 | win |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 84% +$14,357
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2,266 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$457 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$27 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-223 | loss |
| Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan out as President of the United Arab Emirates by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$939 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | +$5 | win |
Finance 89% +$9,024
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 76¢ | 94¢ | +$256 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 74¢ | +$92 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 26¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Wealthfront IPO before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 18¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$22 | win |
Crypto 73% +$6,477
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 50¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 93¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 91¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 10¢ | $-220 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 10¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $136 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 5? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 88% +$3,759
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 50¢ | 60¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | SpaceX | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 21¢ | 72¢ | +$510 | win |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 57¢ | 18¢ | $-380 | loss |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 72¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 7¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$22 | win |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$184 | win |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | +$16 | win |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 96¢ | +$950 | win |
Geopolitics 71% +$861
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-934 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$197 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$176 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 18¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
Mentions 100% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in January 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 67% $-197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-218 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Culture 67% $-221
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Taylor Swift release an album by December 31? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 4 2025) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will “Boots” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (October 28) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28) | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | loss |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
Sports 83% $-662
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 79¢ | 57¢ | $-286 | loss |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-181 | loss |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$61 | win |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | Yes | 12¢ | 3¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Netflix reach $455 in April? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$150 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $50? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Elections 74% $-11,062
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 55¢ | 60¢ | +$881 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | 78¢ | 78¢ | +$339 | win |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 4¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-330 | loss |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-524 | loss |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | win |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Lives of Mormon Wives Season 5 cancelled by April 15? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $8,282 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 33.8¢ | 15¢ | +$67 | $507 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 85¢ | $-1 | $122 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $19,333 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $991 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 17.9¢ | 19¢ | +$1,593 | $2,265 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,980 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 18¢ | $-91 | $263 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $40? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $50? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil settle at <$70 on April 8? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $803 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the April Meeting? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $496 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $498 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the April decision? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $498 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 37.9¢ | 15¢ | $-2,912 | $4,749 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $611 | 06/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $594 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $135 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $232 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,714 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $148 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,847 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,044 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $140 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,815 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,258 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,153 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,167 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $180 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,228 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $224 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,103 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,030 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,072 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $988 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,154 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $982 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $184 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $921 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $784 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $668 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $228 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $831 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $774 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $855 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $850 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $136 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $739 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $176 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $698 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $172 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $583 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 Week of March 30 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $178 | 03/04/2026 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,422 | $55,248 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $437 | 01/04/2026 |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $2,579 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $65 | 01/04/2026 |