NellyDora

Geopolitics 59% +$2,873 $112,718 vol · 202 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	31¢	0¢	$-143	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-41	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	14¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	64¢	0¢	+$23	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	60¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	99¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	81¢	91¢	+$17	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	91¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	77¢	84¢	+$4	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	88¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Sports 70% +$189 $1,359 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs	French Flair	37¢	50¢	+$0	win
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	31¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win

Finance 50% +$160 $1,176 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	68¢	77¢	+$1	win
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	91¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	29¢	72¢	+$7	win
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	21¢	28¢	$-6	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	83¢	100¢	+$10	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$45	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026?	No	63¢	100¢	+$22	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?	Down	52¢	100¢	+$8	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?	Up	36¢	0¢	$-27	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13?	Up	35¢	100¢	$-23	loss

Mentions 0% $-0 $49 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-0	loss

Tech 50% $-8 $64 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$6	win
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-13	loss

Elections 50% $-19 $753 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$2	win
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	41¢	42¢	$-1	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	83¢	84¢	+$2	win
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	84¢	84¢	$-4	loss
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	72¢	64¢	$-10	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	86¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	89¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-23	loss

Other 60% $-30 $28,956 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$14	win
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	57¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	$-1	loss
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	73¢	84¢	+$3	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	+$3	win
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	64¢	56¢	$-3	loss
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	18¢	18¢	+$1	win

Politics 72% $-98 $14,930 vol · 54 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	39¢	39¢	+$15	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	+$13	win
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	50¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	33¢	32¢	+$0	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	96¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	41¢	16¢	$-79	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$-14	loss
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	No	97¢	98¢	$-0	loss
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	92¢	94¢	+$4	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	93¢	99¢	+$59	win

Crypto 49% $-349 $19,068 vol · 49 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	71¢	80¢	$-28	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	70¢	50¢	$-158	loss
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	93¢	86¢	$-51	loss
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	31¢	33¢	+$3	win
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$153	win
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?	No	96¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	No	44¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$26	win
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win