keribit

Elections 62% +$41,278 $483,823 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$895	win
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	No	77¢	100¢	$-24	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$872	win
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	79¢	100¢	+$226	win
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?	No	93¢	100¢	+$199	win
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$127	win
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?	No	3¢	0¢	+$72	win
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	No	91¢	100¢	+$180	win
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$27,410	win
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-9,657	loss

Geopolitics 82% +$31,623 $1,338,041 vol · 116 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	90¢	91¢	+$1,443	win
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	84¢	92¢	+$300	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$60	win
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	88¢	88¢	$-1	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$272	win
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July?	No	98¢	100¢	+$150	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$355	win

Other 79% +$19,824 $670,338 vol · 106 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	93¢	92¢	$-33	loss
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	94¢	98¢	+$167	win
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	87¢	99¢	+$1,241	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$-2	loss
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2,227	win
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-133	loss
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?	No	94¢	100¢	+$751	win

Politics 80% +$16,481 $599,067 vol · 77 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	54¢	39¢	$-10	loss
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	37¢	28¢	$-40	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	86¢	92¢	+$8,498	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	89¢	90¢	+$176	win
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$134	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3,160	win
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$712	win
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	95¢	100¢	+$699	win
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$511	win
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	80¢	100¢	+$500	win

Tech 100% +$3,243 $21,715 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	89¢	100¢	+$2,482	win
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?	No	41¢	100¢	+$326	win
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$7	win
OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August?	No	90¢	100¢	+$20	win
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	Yes	47¢	100¢	+$312	win
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	No	26¢	0¢	+$97	win

Economy 100% +$327 $12,238 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$130	win
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$118	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$56	win
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?	No	81¢	100¢	+$23	win

Weather 100% +$54 $916 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
6.0+ earthquake in Mediterranean by next Friday?	No	91¢	100¢	+$54	win

Culture 100% +$36 $929 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April?	No	96¢	100¢	+$36	win

Finance 100% +$6 $152 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	12¢	3¢	+$2	win

Sports 36% $-836 $10,454 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-126	loss
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	No	0¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?	No	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-943	loss
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Gukesh	54¢	100¢	+$443	win

Crypto 79% $-18,496 $1,012,125 vol · 98 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-522	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	34¢	0¢	$-1,092	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-27,630	loss
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	95¢	100¢	+$281	win
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	56¢	100¢	$-10	loss
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-1,995	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$121	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?	No	85¢	0¢	$-4,248	loss