Win rate
74.8%
335 W / 113 L
Total PnL
$6,917
realized $2,083 · unrealized $4,834
Portfolio
$4,834
volume $2,606,087
Predictions
452
8.0/day · avg $5,766
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 73% +$3,481
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? | No | 66¢ | 75¢ | +$7 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 21¢ | 12¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch? | No | 66¢ | 86¢ | +$17 | win |
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 41¢ | 20¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 88¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 86¢ | 89¢ | +$6 | win |
| Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
| Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Geopolitics 73% +$1,955
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 86¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 81¢ | +$21 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | +$18 | win |
Crypto 84% +$1,492
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 84¢ | +$13 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | Yes | 10¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | Up | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 80% +$111
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 74¢ | 56¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
Sports 65% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hornets vs. Spurs | Hornets | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Bucks | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Pacers vs. 76ers | Pacers | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Pacers vs. 76ers | 76ers | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Asplund | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Tech 100% +$59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 68¢ | 95¢ | +$42 | win |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Esports 73% +$50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Angryginge & Marlon win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | Vitality | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 4 Winner | FURIA | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | Natus Vincere | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | FURIA | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | TheMongolz | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs | Team Falcons | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs | Liquid | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Invictus Gaming | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Mentions 75% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Finance 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xAI IPO before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 60% $-164
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 52¢ | 66¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-254 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | +$102 | $512 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | $128 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 54.6¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $2,727 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $10,402 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $7,832 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $7,089 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $129 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $12,070 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 9¢ | $-34 | $632 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $207 | 14/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $4,738 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $2,466 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $28 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $42 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $39,601 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 12.2¢ | 10¢ | +$22 | $563 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 87.2¢ | 90¢ | +$11 | $1,993 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $3,796 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $47 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 9.7¢ | 8¢ | +$19 | $467 | 07/04/2026 |
| Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 01/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$186 | $3,640 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $5,363 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $1,721 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $5,933 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $9,726 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $2,577 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $329 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $5,694 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $578 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $12,683 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $5,469 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $219 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $128 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $1,093 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $179 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $316 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 46.7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $643 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $390 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 40.9¢ | 50¢ | $-3 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |