Win rate
72.4%
722 W / 275 L
Total PnL
$-202,106
realized $-242,063 · unrealized $39,957
Portfolio
$39,957
volume $16,038,664
Predictions
1,080
5.8/day · avg $14,851
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Economy 64% +$6,640
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$141 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1,575 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1,234 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-880 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping by August 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$337 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-504 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
Elections 53% +$5,908
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 32¢ | 19¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-9,467 | loss |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-943 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Mentions 92% +$4,991
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in March 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Tech 100% +$466
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - October 15 | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 38% +$281
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$362 | win |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-90 | loss |
Sports 89% +$147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? | Joshua | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Pacers vs. Wizards | Wizards | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Pistons vs. Bulls | Pistons | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Pacers vs. Jazz | Pacers | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Finance 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circle IPO in 2025? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 68% $-3,772
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$487 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 73¢ | 80¢ | +$88 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$94 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-3,828 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$303 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | win |
| Will Trump say "Denmark" or "Norway" during WEF Address on January 21? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 71% $-8,251
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | win |
| Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Geopolitics 56% $-88,048
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 52¢ | 54¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 30¢ | +$349 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 28¢ | 74¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 15¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Yes | 70¢ | 54¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
Crypto 77% $-121,220
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 31-April 6? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 17-23? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3,157 | $2,725 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$491 | $8,719 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3,828 | $67,248 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 84¢ | +$32 | $544 | 15/04/2026 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $4,449 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $992 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | $84 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $5,199 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $194 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,018 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | $25,132 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $68,039 | 07/04/2026 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 31-April 6? | Yes | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $184 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $999 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $270 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 67.2¢ | 17¢ | $-800 | $2,899 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 50.5¢ | 83¢ | $-111 | $3,102 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,665 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$418 | $2,487 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $1,884 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $20,679 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $22,261 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $18,228 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $27 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,573 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $200 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $103 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,470 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 49.6¢ | 50¢ | +$1,341 | $56,933 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,313 | $167,701 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 48.6¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $546 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $6,851 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$165 | $1,402 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $4,742 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $24,645 | 31/03/2026 |
| TikTok sale announced by March 31? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $1,563 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $1,963 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $620 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $5,081 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $5,195 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $298 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 14.4¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $1,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 31.9¢ | 0¢ | $-159 | $182 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.9¢ | 0¢ | $-683 | $4,213 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$303 | $17,264 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | $19,659 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $73,040 | 27/03/2026 |