projectparrot

Other 64% +$2,072 $58,514 vol · 219 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	85¢	92¢	+$7	win
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	95¢	97¢	+$1	win
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	24¢	36¢	$-0	loss
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	No	20¢	98¢	+$150	win
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	77¢	100¢	+$148	win
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$75	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$16	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$16	win

Geopolitics 62% +$1,611 $107,586 vol · 351 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	54¢	54¢	$-2	loss
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-68	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$660	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	24¢	18¢	+$121	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$57	win
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	65¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	89¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	22¢	0¢	$-122	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	45¢	70¢	+$0	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$-231	loss

Mentions 27% +$198 $1,073 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	Yes	8¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$235	win

Crypto 63% +$177 $5,307 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	98¢	98¢	$-0	loss
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$405	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-126	loss
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in August?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Solana reach $210 in August?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-84	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 20?	Yes	21¢	100¢	+$87	win
Bitcoin above $122K on August 20?	No	42¢	100¢	+$26	win
Bitcoin above $120K on August 18?	No	22¢	100¢	+$62	win
Ethereum above $4600 on August 18?	No	45¢	100¢	+$55	win

Weather 40% +$12 $1,232 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	+$1	win
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	90¢	90¢	$-1	loss
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	89¢	78¢	$-7	loss
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	63¢	78¢	$-2	loss
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	27¢	22¢	$-9	loss
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	No	95¢	97¢	+$1	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$25	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?	No	41¢	0¢	+$36	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-22	loss

Economy 67% $-64 $2,438 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	99¢	+$4	win
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	No	52¢	0¢	+$21	win
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-9	loss
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	No	25¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-106	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	3¢	0¢	+$8	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$6	win

Tech 25% $-173 $390 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$1	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	46¢	0¢	$-0	loss
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-144	loss

Culture 54% $-299 $3,861 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	86¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	31¢	100¢	$-33	loss
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-212	loss
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$43	win
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 59m?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Politics 65% $-331 $39,563 vol · 150 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	1¢	+$30	win
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	71¢	74¢	+$20	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$89	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	54¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	93¢	100¢	+$7	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	74¢	84¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Yes	21¢	16¢	$-5	loss
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Finance 50% $-390 $976 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	No	26¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	No	32¢	100¢	+$128	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-255	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	No	5¢	0¢	$-278	loss

Elections 54% $-486 $18,453 vol · 107 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	19¢	17¢	+$0	—
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	47¢	56¢	$-2	loss
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	62¢	64¢	+$56	win
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election?	No	34¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	86¢	86¢	+$8	win
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	39¢	37¢	$-7	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	14¢	14¢	+$1	win
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	51¢	86¢	+$34	win

Sports 44% $-729 $5,783 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?	No	94¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?	Yes	42¢	100¢	$-95	loss
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	67¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	No	35¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	No	42¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.3% in December?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$-57	loss
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-486	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-27	loss