Win rate
92.6%
704 W / 56 L
Total PnL
$14,199
realized $-2,892 · unrealized $17,091
Portfolio
$17,091
volume $5,915,716
Predictions
842
10.8/day · avg $7,026
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 99% +$9,380
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$437 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Economy 100% +$1,358
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$251 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$581 | win |
Crypto 94% +$827
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | Up | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | Up | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET | Down | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | Up | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Mentions 93% +$714
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Other 92% +$473
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Sports 75% +$114
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | JD Gaming | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Auger-Aliassime | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Dubai Tennis Championships: Stan Wawrinka vs Benjamin Hassan | Wawrinka | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Politics 91% +$95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-167 | loss |
| Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 100% +$81
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Elections 100% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Esports 73% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | Team Falcons | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Gen.G | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner | G2 Esports | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner | BNK FEARX | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | loss |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | T1 Academy | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | Top Esports | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
Weather 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $9,990 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $9,990 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $2,878 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $1,457 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $742 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 94.8¢ | 99¢ | +$26 | $660 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $302 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $271 | 17/04/2026 |
| RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $8,936 | 16/04/2026 |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 | Over | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $409 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,244 | 16/04/2026 |
| Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $10,099 | 15/04/2026 |
| Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,227 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $9,990 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $9,990 | 14/04/2026 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,273 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,250 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $173 | 14/04/2026 |
| ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $4,140 | 13/04/2026 |
| Levante UD vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 | Under | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $196 | 13/04/2026 |
| ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,576 | 13/04/2026 |
| VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5 | Under | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $171 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5 | Under | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $367 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 | Under | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $196 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 | Over | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $160 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $493 | 12/04/2026 |
| Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $349 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-12? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $226 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | $-14 | $2,978 | 12/04/2026 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $3,324 | 11/04/2026 |
| AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 | Under | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 11/04/2026 |
| Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,995 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-11? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,995 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $228 | 11/04/2026 |
| Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $248 | 11/04/2026 |
| AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $78 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $6,439 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $9,990 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $9,990 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $6,253 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $5,029 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $3,713 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $3,418 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,912 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,550 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $499 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $708 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $566 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $371 | 10/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | Up | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 09/04/2026 |