keybo

Culture 86% +$21 $523 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$8	win
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	16¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	9¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	24¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	7¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	5¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	7¢	0¢	+$1	win

Weather 50% +$3 $219 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	9¢	10¢	+$4	win
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$-2	loss
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-3	loss

Sports 80% +$1 $138 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	10¢	34¢	+$2	win
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?	No	9¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Netflix reach $105 in January?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$8	win

Mentions 62% $-5 $274 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?	Yes	18¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?	Yes	7¢	0¢	+$10	win

Crypto 57% $-30 $206 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	2¢	0¢	+$2	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$1	win
Will Ye say something antisemitic before March?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-6	loss

Economy 43% $-46 $560 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	20¢	26¢	$-26	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	6¢	5¢	+$5	win
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	No	5¢	4¢	$-1	loss
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$-2	loss
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	11¢	8¢	+$7	win
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$-18	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$1	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	No	3¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Finance 36% $-118 $408 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	9¢	12¢	+$4	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	25¢	22¢	$-1	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	7¢	12¢	$-0	loss
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$5	win
Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	48¢	59¢	$-3	loss
Will Honeywell International (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	No	20¢	12¢	$-7	loss
Will S&T Bancorp (STBA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	46¢	20¢	$-14	loss
Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	37¢	14¢	$-24	loss
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-6	loss

Elections 42% $-247 $3,694 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$-31	loss
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	22¢	28¢	+$2	win
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	Yes	42¢	48¢	+$1	win
Will the Republican Party win the GA-07 House seat?	No	10¢	24¢	+$0	win
Will the Republican Party win the FL-08 House seat?	No	10¢	10¢	+$0	win
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?	No	10¢	8¢	$-1	loss
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	Yes	40¢	30¢	$-4	loss
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?	No	40¢	32¢	$-5	loss
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?	No	16¢	18¢	$-6	loss
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$-14	loss

Tech 29% $-253 $1,657 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Yes	25¢	32¢	+$0	—
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$-4	loss
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$-17	loss
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	5¢	5¢	+$9	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	11¢	16¢	+$1	win
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$-18	loss
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$-6	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-0	loss
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Geopolitics 50% $-318 $13,924 vol · 198 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	23¢	18¢	$-12	loss
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	8¢	9¢	+$9	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	46¢	76¢	+$9	win
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	14¢	18¢	+$6	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	16¢	14¢	+$3	win
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	15¢	14¢	+$3	win
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	20¢	10¢	+$2	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Yes	8¢	9¢	+$1	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	38¢	30¢	+$0	—

Politics 46% $-536 $3,398 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	7¢	8¢	+$7	win
Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?	Yes	21¢	28¢	+$3	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	10¢	16¢	+$0	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	7¢	8¢	+$0	win
Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	9¢	12¢	+$8	win
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	19¢	17¢	$-5	loss
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$-3	loss
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$-5	loss
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	8¢	10¢	+$4	win
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Yes	17¢	26¢	+$3	win

Other 53% $-941 $14,481 vol · 225 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	6¢	10¢	+$1	win
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	Yes	22¢	18¢	+$1	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$24	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	12¢	18¢	+$18	win
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?	Yes	2¢	11¢	+$7	win
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$-9	loss
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?	Yes	11¢	47¢	+$6	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	5¢	4¢	+$2	win
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	21¢	22¢	+$1	win