Rawdy

Elections 76% +$171 $3,121 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	81¢	78¢	$-1	loss
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	94¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	81¢	92¢	+$1	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	74¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	78¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%?	No	20¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	79¢	100¢	+$43	win
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	No	20¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?	No	82¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	52¢	100¢	+$45	win

Tech 73% +$166 $929 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	100¢	100¢	+$-0	loss
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$18	win
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13?	Up	50¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	75¢	100¢	+$120	win
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	92¢	100¢	$-2	loss

Mentions 82% +$138 $2,214 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?	No	89¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	No	62¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?	No	80¢	0¢	$-71	loss
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	No	60¢	0¢	$-152	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?	No	50¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?	No	44¢	0¢	$-24	loss

Culture 89% +$112 $855 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	59¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	55¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 25.5m?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?	No	76¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?	No	60¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?	No	52¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 100% +$39 $139 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	96¢	97¢	+$0	—
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 10?	Up	72¢	100¢	+$39	win

Economy 67% +$2 $980 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	61¢	8¢	$-21	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	81¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	99¢	+$4	win
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?	No	67¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$37	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	5¢	0¢	$-19	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs	Ole Miss Rebels	55¢	100¢	+$163	win
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Texas Southern Tigers: O/U 142.5	Under	50¢	100¢	+$75	win
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats	Kentucky Wildcats	87¢	100¢	+$11	win

Politics 67% $-85 $1,188 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	54¢	61¢	+$5	win
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$-6	loss
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	49¢	100¢	+$1	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	70¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Trump out as President by June 30?	No	95¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	No	82¢	92¢	$-0	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	win
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	58¢	62¢	+$1	win

Weather 75% $-156 $654 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C or below on April 5?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 30?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on March 29?	No	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 29?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 29?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 29?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?	No	73¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	No	72¢	0¢	$-145	loss

Esports 64% $-815 $11,127 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs	TheMongolz	50¢	100¢	+$33	win
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	FUT Esports	72¢	100¢	+$8	win
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs	Astralis	84¢	100¢	+$4	win
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	FUT Esports	71¢	100¢	+$8	win
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	NRG	70¢	100¢	+$9	win
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	82¢	100¢	+$6	win
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	FUT Esports	80¢	100¢	+$5	win
Counter-Strike: 9z vs ODDIK (BO5) - PGL Astana: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs	9z	88¢	100¢	+$5	win
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner	G2 Esports	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	Legacy	39¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Crypto 54% $-1,628 $6,513 vol · 151 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament?	No	98¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?	No	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9?	No	66¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 9?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	39¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	45¢	0¢	$-39	loss

Geopolitics 52% $-1,745 $10,751 vol · 89 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$61	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$16	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	58¢	70¢	+$0	—
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	83¢	0¢	$-37	loss
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	No	88¢	0¢	$-191	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	88¢	96¢	$-1	loss
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$-32	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	86¢	92¢	+$1	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	83¢	78¢	$-1	loss
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	98¢	98¢	$-0	loss

Sports 56% $-2,298 $112,021 vol · 673 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	97¢	97¢	$-0	loss
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	No	65¢	70¢	$-5	loss
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	84¢	$-1	loss
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	62¢	54¢	$-2	loss
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$-4	loss
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	86¢	86¢	+$0	win
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?	No	70¢	90¢	+$1	win
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	82¢	60¢	$-5	loss
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	25¢	4¢	$-11	loss

Other 59% $-4,917 $116,317 vol · 1040 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	91¢	65¢	$-28	loss
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	92¢	93¢	$-0	loss
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	35¢	22¢	$-7	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	84¢	78¢	$-2	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	97¢	95¢	$-0	loss
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	96¢	97¢	+$0	win
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	89¢	97¢	+$3	win
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	63¢	98¢	+$8	win
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	No	93¢	97¢	+$2	win