Bperil

Geopolitics 67% +$8,065 $206,361 vol · 314 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	55¢	31¢	$-9	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	43¢	0¢	+$129	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	59¢	0¢	+$77	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$70	win
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	83¢	90¢	+$46	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	48¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	82¢	91¢	+$32	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	41¢	100¢	+$31	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$13	win
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	69¢	78¢	+$22	win

Other 70% +$4,290 $76,204 vol · 185 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	27¢	25¢	+$2	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	$-4	loss
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	73¢	60¢	+$8	win
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	84¢	92¢	+$8	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	45¢	36¢	+$9	win
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	66¢	90¢	$-5	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$15	win
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	57¢	66¢	+$15	win
China coup attempt before 2027?	No	91¢	93¢	+$8	win
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	74¢	82¢	+$4	win

Elections 67% +$3,736 $56,545 vol · 88 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$-344	loss
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	91¢	89¢	+$0	win
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	69¢	78¢	+$2	win
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$-2	loss
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	51¢	57¢	$-1	loss
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	27¢	28¢	+$21	win
Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	74¢	78¢	+$1	win
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	51¢	63¢	+$30	win
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	87¢	100¢	+$7	win

Politics 63% +$1,164 $44,035 vol · 133 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$-3	loss
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	14¢	20¢	+$7	win
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	87¢	92¢	+$7	win
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	87¢	80¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-123	loss
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	42¢	50¢	+$73	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	82¢	92¢	+$30	win
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	84¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	80¢	84¢	+$15	win
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	58¢	52¢	+$2	win

Culture 86% +$133 $1,600 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$111	win
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?	No	85¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$4	win

Sports 71% +$73 $555 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$64	win
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	69¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	72¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins	Bruins	93¢	100¢	+$8	win
Panthers vs. Golden Knights	Panthers	90¢	100¢	+$7	win
Lightning vs. Golden Knights	Lightning	98¢	100¢	+$3	win

Tech 100% +$4 $70 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$2	win

Finance 0% $-12 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?	Up	52¢	0¢	$-12	loss

Crypto 43% $-160 $2,551 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	58¢	60¢	+$1	win
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	68¢	60¢	$-75	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	76¢	78¢	$-47	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	93¢	98¢	+$7	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	62¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-30	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	73¢	0¢	$-14	loss