Win rate
55.4%
372 W / 299 L
Total PnL
$7,676
realized $-4,853 · unrealized $12,529
Portfolio
$12,529
volume $1,300,338
Predictions
703
14.9/day · avg $1,850
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 56% +$6,448
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 91¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
Other 56% +$1,384
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 53% +$366
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs | French Flair | 37¢ | 50¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 58% +$346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Yes | 79¢ | 90¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 91¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 72¢ | +$7 | win |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 28¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 84¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? | Up | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? | Down | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Tech 56% +$116
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 27? | Up | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28? | Up | 2¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 32¢ | +$27 | win |
Economy 100% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Elections 20% $-39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 41¢ | 42¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 21¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72¢ | 64¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during meeting with Netanyahu? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Politics 60% $-297
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | Yes | 17¢ | 24¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 75¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 49% $-393
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 28¢ | 43¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 33¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 10¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 97¢ | +$6 | $93 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $25 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$676 | $9,624 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 50.2¢ | 86¢ | +$521 | $2,103 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $1,892 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | $164 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $712 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $1,911 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $1,613 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $1,311 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 24.4¢ | 14¢ | +$2 | $150 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $685 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $93 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78.2¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $330 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $95 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $372 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $182 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $180 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $39 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $243 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | $1,149 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | $260 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 47.4¢ | 86¢ | +$115 | $2,142 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $7,935 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $107 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $84 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $413 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 51.9¢ | 14¢ | $-130 | $1,632 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $135 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $191 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $55 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $454 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | No | 24.8¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,407 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | $2,921 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | $1,395 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | $4,081 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | $4,921 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $708 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 62.6¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $593 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $2,793 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$76 | $366 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $892 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |