Win rate
42.9%
1136 W / 1515 L
Total PnL
$85,499
realized $74,875 · unrealized $10,624
Portfolio
$10,624
volume $11,908,622
Predictions
3,229
25.9/day · avg $3,688
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Mentions 59% +$55,509
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-367 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 28¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 50¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
Finance 29% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Medline's market cap be less than $35B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-90 | loss |
Esports 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will G2 Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will The Huns Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
Economy 40% $-225
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 44% $-308
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$85 in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November? | Yes | 15¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in November? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in November? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-214 | loss |
Politics 34% $-680
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,133 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥50.0% on December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$996 | win |
| Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,116 | loss |
Geopolitics 35% $-816
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-809 | loss |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 11? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-625 | loss |
| Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Tech 38% $-1,862
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 45¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amazon acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$689 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$224 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$141 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | win |
Weather 37% $-2,184
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on December 18? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 18? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on December 18? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on December 17? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 17? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on December 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Culture 34% $-3,541
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will The Phoenician Scheme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Cate Blanchett win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Robin "ropz" Kool win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 'Kingdom Come: Deliverance II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-530 | loss |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-187 | loss |
Elections 15% $-4,952
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 100¢ | 83¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 65¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 90%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-221 | loss |
| Will Kast win by 15% to 20%? | Yes | 12¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | win |
| Will Kast win by 5% to 10%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,058 | loss |
Crypto 37% $-7,107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will NFT #1484 win the Based trading competition? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will NFT #2678 win the Based trading competition? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on December 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will coinco98 win the Genesis Cup? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on December 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 14? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 14? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-974 | loss |
Other 29% $-10,197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ultra Prime win the LPL 2026 season? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 120 million or more views on week 1? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $604 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $397 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $423 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $1,979 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $4,826 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,853 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $530 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $3,809 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $25 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $193 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$717 | $788 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 54.8¢ | 0¢ | +$542 | $4,202 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$418 | $11,663 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$189 | $14,621 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $3,010 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | $70 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $6,818 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $2,287 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $169 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $1,530 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 80.9¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $19,403 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | $-814 | $13,659 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | +$709 | $5,099 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 72.6¢ | 100¢ | +$658 | $20,749 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.9¢ | 100¢ | +$514 | $9,885 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 69.4¢ | 0¢ | +$303 | $13,594 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | +$145 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%? | Yes | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | +$137 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | +$112 | $468 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | 11.8¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 64.7¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | $1,409 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $138 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,699 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $419 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $668 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | No | 43.2¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $433 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on week 1? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 120 million or more views on week 1? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $5,310 | 31/03/2026 |